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From the article: This is all theoretical, of course. The study authors are both mathematical physicists who use modeling to understand complex systems, rangin

by myshpa 3y ago

From the article: This is all theoretical, of course. The study authors are both mathematical physicists who use modeling to understand complex systems, ranging from complicated biological processes to fiddly social systems. ... Forest is also taken as a proxy for all resources, which could be seen as oversimplistic. ... Nevertheless, the study paints a compelling image of how rampant deforestation and population collapse threaten human society as a whole. The study primarily looks at deforestation and our consumption of trees. Trees are an invaluable asset for humans and the wider ecosystem. Not only do they support natural and human food systems but they also are a lynchpin in a number of important systems, such as the carbon cycle, oxygen production, soil conservation, and the water cycle. As such, the researchers say deforestation will soon mean there are not enough resources to maintain the global population, at which point there will be a "disastrous collapse" of the population. -- Source: Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63657-6 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63657-6 Based on the current resource consumption rates and best estimate of technological rate growth our study shows that we have very low probability, less than 10% in most optimistic estimate, to survive without facing a catastrophic collapse. --- Safe and just Earth system boundaries https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06083-8 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06083-8 Agriculture production as a major driver of the Earth system exceeding planetary boundaries https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320356605_Agriculture_production_as_a_major_driver_of_the_Earth_system_exceeding_planetary_boundaries https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320356605_Agricultu... Earth’s health failing in seven out of eight key measures, say scientists https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/31/earth-health-failing-in-seven-out-of-eight-key-measures-say-scientists-earth-commission https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/31/earth-he... Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0757-z https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0757-z Planetary boundaries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetary_boundaries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetary_boundaries

p1esk 3y ago
We will turn into AI (or will be killed by AI) way before we run out of resources.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
jandrese 3y ago
This kind of modeling far too often assumes that current (unsustainable) rates of consumption will continue right up to the point the last tree is cut down. In real life as resources become strained they also become expensive and people start finding alternatives or change behavior to be more efficient. This blows out the long term forecasts time and time again. It is important to recognize where we are consuming resources too destructively, but it is not a death sentence for civilization.
- myshpa 3y ago
  They are aware. From the article: At the current rate of deforestation, all of Earth’s forests would disappear in 100 to 200 years. However, the study predicts that the scarcity of forests will start to cause problems long before all of the planet’s trees are gone. “Clearly it is unrealistic to imagine that the human society would start to be affected by the deforestation only when the last tree would be cut down,” they write. “The progressive degradation of the environment due to deforestation would heavily affect human society and consequently the human collapse would start much earlier.” > It is important to recognize where we are consuming resources too destructively It's not only about resources. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01157-x https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01157-x Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers https://phys.org/news/2023-06-ecological-doom-loops-ecosystem-collapses-sooner.html https://phys.org/news/2023-06-ecological-doom-loops-ecosyste... Ecological doom-loops: Why ecosystem collapses may occur much sooner than expected https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01448-4 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01448-4 Humans are driving one million species to extinction - Landmark UN-backed report finds that agriculture is one of the biggest threats to Earth’s ecosystems.
- sillywalk 3y ago
  Within decades there will be chunks of the earth around the equator housing hundreds of millions of people that will be literally uninhabitable. i.e. the wet-bulb temperature will be higher than a human can tolerate. This year people in Arizona are getting third degree burns from falling onto asphalt. Extreme weather will make agriculture on any scale impossible, because it'll be drought or floods or both. Even if we stop all emissions immediately. Humans can survive in this temperature in the same way they can survive under water, not for very long.

by myshpa 3y ago

p1esk 3y ago

We will turn into AI (or will be killed by AI) way before we run out of resources.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

jandrese 3y ago

This kind of modeling far too often assumes that current (unsustainable) rates of consumption will continue right up to the point the last tree is cut down. In real life as resources become strained they also become expensive and people start finding alternatives or change behavior to be more efficient. This blows out the long term forecasts time and time again. It is important to recognize where we are consuming resources too destructively, but it is not a death sentence for civilization.

myshpa 3y ago
They are aware. From the article: At the current rate of deforestation, all of Earth’s forests would disappear in 100 to 200 years. However, the study predicts that the scarcity of forests will start to cause problems long before all of the planet’s trees are gone. “Clearly it is unrealistic to imagine that the human society would start to be affected by the deforestation only when the last tree would be cut down,” they write. “The progressive degradation of the environment due to deforestation would heavily affect human society and consequently the human collapse would start much earlier.” > It is important to recognize where we are consuming resources too destructively It's not only about resources. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01157-x https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01157-x Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers https://phys.org/news/2023-06-ecological-doom-loops-ecosystem-collapses-sooner.html https://phys.org/news/2023-06-ecological-doom-loops-ecosyste... Ecological doom-loops: Why ecosystem collapses may occur much sooner than expected https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01448-4 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01448-4 Humans are driving one million species to extinction - Landmark UN-backed report finds that agriculture is one of the biggest threats to Earth’s ecosystems.
sillywalk 3y ago
Within decades there will be chunks of the earth around the equator housing hundreds of millions of people that will be literally uninhabitable. i.e. the wet-bulb temperature will be higher than a human can tolerate. This year people in Arizona are getting third degree burns from falling onto asphalt. Extreme weather will make agriculture on any scale impossible, because it'll be drought or floods or both. Even if we stop all emissions immediately. Humans can survive in this temperature in the same way they can survive under water, not for very long.