5 ms·

Cloud cover doesn't stop all production, it just reduces it. Just build more solar and more storage and it will still be a fraction of the cost of nuclear. I c

by dv_dt 3y ago

Cloud cover doesn't stop all production, it just reduces it. Just build more solar and more storage and it will still be a fraction of the cost of nuclear. I could answer point by point but all of your "failures" are artificially constrained.

Manuel_D 3y ago
Cloud cover reduces solar production by 10-25%. If you need 10x overproduction, plus storage it's not cheaper than nuclear. That's not even counting factors like axial tilt (during winter the Earth is rotated away form the sun, reducing incoming light per M^2 of land), and the transmission infrastructure required to accommodate the decentralized nature of solar and wind [1] (which nuclear conveniently avoids since it's much more energy dense). These aren't artificially constrained issues. These are real practical barriers. Why haven't countries the world over completely to renewables if it's cheaper? Because corporations want to screw up the environment because... they're moustache-twirling evil people or something? But the reality is that intermittent sources still have significant barriers to implementation that won't go away without massive, orders-of-magnitude improvements in storage performance. Renewables are good to deploy in an opportunistic fashion, supplementing dispatchable sources during periods of production and then turning the gas back on when they're not producing. But actually producing a primarily renewable grid becomes vastly more challenging due to the intermittency. 1. https://www.vox.com/videos/22685707/climate-change-clean-energy-high-voltage-transmission-lines https://www.vox.com/videos/22685707/climate-change-clean-ene...
- dv_dt 3y ago
  Fossil fuel companies are those mustache-twirling profit optimization villains, and there is demonstrated evidence that they have run a decades long campaign against any form of energy that is not fossil fuel... 10-25% short fall doesn't require 10x over capacity, it requires a mix of overcapacity + storage + energy conservation measures.
  - Manuel_D 3y ago
    The energy storage at relevant scale is nowhere near feasible as other comment chains explain. "Energy conservation" is just an admission that these sources can't generate enough energy.
    - dv_dt 3y ago
      Other comment chains have explained the storage scale you claim is needed, isn't a great estimate. Energy conservation is probably a better payback than either nuclear or renewables and better resilience for people infrastructure. For example, better insulation reduces energy costs in both cold winters and heat waves, and reduces the impact if there are grid/source failures by any technology. It also doesn't have a big crossover on the logistics tail of either nuclear or renewables, and so is a great thing to do in parallel to address climate change in general. "Conservation is an admission of failure" is a purely ridiculous position.
      - Manuel_D 3y ago
        The estimate of 12 hours of storage was one of the more optimistic ones. It's not just day/night cycles there's also weather that results in long term fluctuations in output. Some of the estimates call for weeks of storage. Energy conservation is likely not going to be feasible as more and more transportation gets electrified, as gas heating is replaced with electric, and industrial processes like smelting are decarbonized. Conservation is indeed an admission of failure, because success involves accommodating the growing demand for electricity in the future. Remember, electricity production is only about a third of total energy consumption: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/ https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/
        Retric 3y ago
        Estimates for weeks of storage are made by people who don’t understand the fundamental cost optimization going on. More production costs X which reduces the need for batteries by Y, as long as X > Y you build more production even if most of it’s output is unnecessary. Also 16% of global electricity comes from hydroelectric generation, we really don’t need that many batteries. Actual optimized energy storage is on the order of 2 to 6 hours total globally ~30 years from now depending on how much prices drop. With larger numbers representing lower battery prices. In the shorter term it’s a tiny fraction of that.

by dv_dt 3y ago

Manuel_D 3y ago

Cloud cover reduces solar production by 10-25%. If you need 10x overproduction, plus storage it's not cheaper than nuclear. That's not even counting factors like axial tilt (during winter the Earth is rotated away form the sun, reducing incoming light per M^2 of land), and the transmission infrastructure required to accommodate the decentralized nature of solar and wind [1] (which nuclear conveniently avoids since it's much more energy dense). These aren't artificially constrained issues. These are real practical barriers. Why haven't countries the world over completely to renewables if it's cheaper? Because corporations want to screw up the environment because... they're moustache-twirling evil people or something? But the reality is that intermittent sources still have significant barriers to implementation that won't go away without massive, orders-of-magnitude improvements in storage performance. Renewables are good to deploy in an opportunistic fashion, supplementing dispatchable sources during periods of production and then turning the gas back on when they're not producing. But actually producing a primarily renewable grid becomes vastly more challenging due to the intermittency. 1. https://www.vox.com/videos/22685707/climate-change-clean-energy-high-voltage-transmission-lines https://www.vox.com/videos/22685707/climate-change-clean-ene...

dv_dt 3y ago
Fossil fuel companies are those mustache-twirling profit optimization villains, and there is demonstrated evidence that they have run a decades long campaign against any form of energy that is not fossil fuel... 10-25% short fall doesn't require 10x over capacity, it requires a mix of overcapacity + storage + energy conservation measures.
- Manuel_D 3y ago
  The energy storage at relevant scale is nowhere near feasible as other comment chains explain. "Energy conservation" is just an admission that these sources can't generate enough energy.
  - dv_dt 3y ago
    Other comment chains have explained the storage scale you claim is needed, isn't a great estimate. Energy conservation is probably a better payback than either nuclear or renewables and better resilience for people infrastructure. For example, better insulation reduces energy costs in both cold winters and heat waves, and reduces the impact if there are grid/source failures by any technology. It also doesn't have a big crossover on the logistics tail of either nuclear or renewables, and so is a great thing to do in parallel to address climate change in general. "Conservation is an admission of failure" is a purely ridiculous position.
    - Manuel_D 3y ago
      The estimate of 12 hours of storage was one of the more optimistic ones. It's not just day/night cycles there's also weather that results in long term fluctuations in output. Some of the estimates call for weeks of storage. Energy conservation is likely not going to be feasible as more and more transportation gets electrified, as gas heating is replaced with electric, and industrial processes like smelting are decarbonized. Conservation is indeed an admission of failure, because success involves accommodating the growing demand for electricity in the future. Remember, electricity production is only about a third of total energy consumption: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/ https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/
      - Retric 3y ago
        Estimates for weeks of storage are made by people who don’t understand the fundamental cost optimization going on. More production costs X which reduces the need for batteries by Y, as long as X > Y you build more production even if most of it’s output is unnecessary. Also 16% of global electricity comes from hydroelectric generation, we really don’t need that many batteries. Actual optimized energy storage is on the order of 2 to 6 hours total globally ~30 years from now depending on how much prices drop. With larger numbers representing lower battery prices. In the shorter term it’s a tiny fraction of that.