> Why is a prediction market for replication per se more interesting than the existing market of all the public companies who would be enriched / wiped out base

> Why is a prediction market for replication per se more interesting than the existing market of all the public companies who would be enriched / wiped out based on the result? If you knew precisely which companies would gain or lose, how much relative to their stock price, and all these companies were liquid and public, then maybe you could make this comparison. Even then, there'd be plenty of noise from unrelated factors. So, it's pretty clear why a prediction market is superior.