5 ms·
> Too often, the markets disconnect from the underlying economic reality, sometimes with only mild effects (for example, that time petroleum prices went negativ
by kevinmchugh 3y ago
> Too often, the markets disconnect from the underlying economic reality, sometimes with only mild effects (for example, that time petroleum prices went negative)
I may have misunderstood the situation at the time or am now misremembering it but I thought:
Some crude futures were about to become deliverable, meaning people who had been speculating on the price and have no fundamental use for unrefined petroleum were going to receive it. Normally they sell the soon-delivering futures for some later-delivering futures and lose or make relatively small amounts of money in the difference.
But there was no one to sell to, because COVID had reduced processing capacity and demand for gasoline. So all these traders who had no use for crude were about to be stuck with it. It's a noxious, volatile, dangerous chemical that requires special handling.
As the date approached it became important to find somewhere to _put _ the stuff, so much so that traders were paying people to take it off their hands. Which seems like a very elegant mechanism?
Like, I don't want crude oil at my house. I'm not gonna worry much about the price to get it taken away, probably.
And at that moment the market was paying for someone to take the crude, meaning anyone who could bring additional storage or processing capacity online very quickly was delivering something valuable.
- kakwa_ 3y agoYes, that's what's happened. I was using this example to illustrate the disconnect between the market (which was trading oil like some immaterial stuff) and reality (oil is definitely a product you need to store properly, plus oil storage is not infinite). In fairness, because it occurred during COVID, i.e. a really abnormal situation, this is a bit of a weak example.