> Having good legible predictions of impactful events such as LK-99 replication is extremely useful for society - it would be an invaluable input for a savvy po

> Having good legible predictions of impactful events such as LK-99 replication is extremely useful for society - it would be an invaluable input for a savvy policy maker for instance. How? Would it not be better for the "savvy" policy maker to JUST WAIT until this discovery is confirmed, definitively, by multiple legit research institutions? And even better, wait until it shows some promise of practical application? Policy, as we know it, almost never reacts within hours to anything, let alone a scientific discovery. What exactly can a policy maker even do with faster than hot-off-the-press knowledge about this stuff? Prediction markets are really just for people that hustle in markets or who are looking for a news scoop. There's nothing intrinsically wrong with that, though some might argue it contributes to needless volatility.