4 ms·
A "Do you understand what superconductivity is?" or "Do you have a physics or engineering degree?" barrier? And the relevant question isn't whether 'smart' mon
by ethbr0 3y ago
A "Do you understand what superconductivity is?" or "Do you have a physics or engineering degree?" barrier?
And the relevant question isn't whether 'smart' money does dumb things: it's whether 'smart' money does dumb things less frequently than a random sample of money.
No one is an oracle, and there are absolutely outlier events that specifically confound experts, but I can't believe that increased expertise is uncorrelated with increased accuracy.
- kritiko 3y agoTetlock’s Superforecasters performed better than experts, though: >In the Good Judgment Project, "the top forecasters... performed about 30 percent better than the average for intelligence community analysts who could read intercepts and other secret data"