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"Will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents) in 2023?" is at 18% https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/8-will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonate htt
by epivosism 3y ago
"Will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents) in 2023?" is at 18%
https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/8-will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonate https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/8-will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-d...
There are some caveats in the description, and this is play money, but people on the site do take their profits seriously.
- gomox 3y agoIt seems to be too thinly traded to read much into it? From what I can see a $100 bet would make the implied probability of detonation 93%.
- epivosism 3y agoyes, but then players would use their cash to bring it back to a reasonable number. That's why there are temporary blips on the site but markets which have at least 40-50 traders tend to stay where the whale consensus still is. I admit it's a weakness, but even play money markets generally do tend to track real-money ones where they exist. People on the site mostly take their profits seriously.