> If you are participating in a prediction market, either you have some reason you believe you know something the market does not or you should expect you are s

> If you are participating in a prediction market, either you have some reason you believe you know something the market does not or you should expect you are simply subsidizing those with better information. Sometimes people just vote for "their team", similar to a sportsball fan placing a large bet on their favorite team winning, without any insider knowledge. I've seen it a couple of times on PredictIt for the more contentious predictions (presidential election being one, control of the house / senate, etc). While in the end those with better information will usually come out on top, in those kinds of markets the favored prediction doesn't align well with the data.