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How would you construct such a knowledge barrier? Another prediction market? Also, suggesting that there is such a thing as 'smart' money - presumably due to h
by gilleain 3y ago
How would you construct such a knowledge barrier? Another prediction market?
Also, suggesting that there is such a thing as 'smart' money - presumably due to having more of it? - is amusing. As pointed out elsewhere in this discussion, there has been a lot of smart money acting particularly dumb over the last few years.
- ethbr0 3y agoA "Do you understand what superconductivity is?" or "Do you have a physics or engineering degree?" barrier? And the relevant question isn't whether 'smart' money does dumb things: it's whether 'smart' money does dumb things less frequently than a random sample of money. No one is an oracle, and there are absolutely outlier events that specifically confound experts, but I can't believe that increased expertise is uncorrelated with increased accuracy.
- kritiko 3y agoTetlock’s Superforecasters performed better than experts, though: >In the Good Judgment Project, "the top forecasters... performed about 30 percent better than the average for intelligence community analysts who could read intercepts and other secret data"