Note that real prediction markets with money are currently illegal in the US because of some legacy law. So Polymarket (currently the major prediction market I

Note that real prediction markets with money are currently illegal in the US because of some legacy law. So Polymarket (currently the major prediction market I believe) is only usable outside the US anyway. Currently the only US alternative is play money. Manifold and Metaculus use this system. Metaculus doesn't really use play "money", but a non-zero-sum system to award points for more accurate predictions. It's in both cases a game and an exercise in checking how well-calibrated your beliefs about the future are. And here is the canonical FAQ on prediction markets, and the social/policy benefits they could have: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prediction-market-faq https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prediction-market-faq