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Prediction markets got Donald Trump wrong on the election night and Brexit too[0]. Given such a huge failure why should we care what they say? [0]: https://ar
by tomjen3 3y ago
Prediction markets got Donald Trump wrong on the election night and Brexit too[0].
Given such a huge failure why should we care what they say?
[0]: https://archive.li/7m8s6 https://archive.li/7m8s6
- bitshiftfaced 3y agoWeren't they still much better than what many media experts were forecasting? Iirc, CNN put Clinton at 97%.
- andrepd 3y agoSerious analysis, like 538 (not just poll aggregators like CNN), put Clinton at ~65%.
- brookst 3y agoAre you saying they are no better than chance? Or just that they are not 100% perfect? Because we should deeply care about any source of information that beats chance, even if it is imperfect.
- tomjen3 3y agoI mean that is two fucking big ones to get wrong, no? Would maybe be interesting to see some data to look back and see how correct they are in general, but to be practically useful it would have to be quite a lot better than chance.