> Prediction markets are one of the (or just, the?) best ways of aggregating knowledge from multiple sources and producing the best predictions. They would be

> Prediction markets are one of the (or just, the?) best ways of aggregating knowledge from multiple sources and producing the best predictions. They would be true if people with most money and appetite for risk were also the most knowledgeable and smart. They are not. As you can easily tell from recent coverage of idiocy of even the richest people who have propensity for big bets. It has been researched and discovered that people with more money do not make smarter bets than those with far less. So at best, looking at prediction markets, gives you exactly as much knowledge as polling random people on the streets and asking them what would they bet on.