3 ms·

The base prior (the market price) is that this will not replicate. This scenario is a way to make a quick buck claiming the opposite without doing any actual ha

The base prior (the market price) is that this will not replicate. This scenario is a way to make a quick buck claiming the opposite without doing any actual hard work. In regular markets you can't just say "we increased our sales 1000%" and a week later "oops, sorry, misplaced decimal dot". You can do that in prediction markets.

alchemist1e9 3y ago
If you are participating in a prediction market and blindly believe random claims, yes, you will lose your money. As you should. I don’t understand what you think is different with other markets. Information must be assessed for it’s accuracy and acted on by participants. In this case I’d even argue the prediction market helped focus attention and resulted in rapid counter analysis that questioned the claims. Perhaps without the LK-99 markets effects the false information would have had wider and longer reach? The losses of the unskilled participants are a perfectly acceptable cost and in fact beneficial in the long term.
- dist-epoch 3y ago
  The reason regulation is introduced in every trading market is because scammers are killing the market. How long do you think an honest operator can survive in a market where 90% of participants are scammers? You talk about skilled participants. The way to have 100% skill is to manufacture an event. The history of financial markets is rich in examples. Or more recently, the endless supply of scamming in sports betting where athletes collude to fix games.
  - alchemist1e9 3y ago
    I understand that is the common perception and an understandable one based on how the information on this topic is presented to the public. However it’s likely not true, unregulated markets have boomed and provide many valuable services and information. I’ve personally heard an argument promoting even removal of insider trading laws and that markets would actually be fairer and more efficient without them.

alchemist1e9 3y ago

If you are participating in a prediction market and blindly believe random claims, yes, you will lose your money. As you should. I don’t understand what you think is different with other markets. Information must be assessed for it’s accuracy and acted on by participants. In this case I’d even argue the prediction market helped focus attention and resulted in rapid counter analysis that questioned the claims. Perhaps without the LK-99 markets effects the false information would have had wider and longer reach? The losses of the unskilled participants are a perfectly acceptable cost and in fact beneficial in the long term.

dist-epoch 3y ago
The reason regulation is introduced in every trading market is because scammers are killing the market. How long do you think an honest operator can survive in a market where 90% of participants are scammers? You talk about skilled participants. The way to have 100% skill is to manufacture an event. The history of financial markets is rich in examples. Or more recently, the endless supply of scamming in sports betting where athletes collude to fix games.
- alchemist1e9 3y ago
  I understand that is the common perception and an understandable one based on how the information on this topic is presented to the public. However it’s likely not true, unregulated markets have boomed and provide many valuable services and information. I’ve personally heard an argument promoting even removal of insider trading laws and that markets would actually be fairer and more efficient without them.