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It's worse than that. If you've confirmed results, you now have an incentive not to publish your results, instead building up a market position on prediction ma
by ummonk 3y ago
It's worse than that. If you've confirmed results, you now have an incentive not to publish your results, instead building up a market position on prediction markets for as long as possible.
- killerstorm 3y agoNo. You're incentivized to build a market prosition on prediction markets, or sell your information to somebody who can. (E.g. if a lab has a replication proof it might partner with a trading firm to maximize their profit.) But there's definitely no incentive to do it "for as long as possible". E.g. once the trader gets into a favorable position, they are incentivized to reveal their information ASAP to be able to take profit.
- ummonk 3y agoThe amount of market position you (or someone you have sold the information to) can build up is limited by market liquidity / trade volumes.