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I could scarcely have predicted the rapid breakthrough pace of innovation that got us where we are in 2023, and I dare not try to predict as this author is tryi
by happytiger 3y ago
I could scarcely have predicted the rapid breakthrough pace of innovation that got us where we are in 2023, and I dare not try to predict as this author is trying to do what will be hard or impossible about the innovation we’ll see in another 2, 5 or 10 years.
People are terrible predictors of the future, and especially terrible in emerging fields and novel areas of research. It’s astounding how much confidence people continually posses in their predictive capabilities despite their truly dismal track records in predicting the future.
- iraqmtpizza 3y agoPeople just blindly extrapolate. Things that are down: math and language skills, transportation speed, life expectancy. Things that are up: manufacturing costs, mental health conditions, incarceration rates. Batteries and rockets are better, but well below expectations. CPU performance is well below expectations. Parallel computing improvements are satisfactory, I suppose.
- happytiger 3y agoThat’s quite an astute comment and I thank you.