3 ms·
According to Zeihan, China, and to a lesser extent India, have a horrible demographics problem looming. The prediction was for a dramatic collapse in manufactur
by galangalalgol 3y ago
According to Zeihan, China, and to a lesser extent India, have a horrible demographics problem looming. The prediction was for a dramatic collapse in manufacturing capacity. China at least might have the central authority to kill all those too old to work or consume, but my understanding is that doesn't fit well with the predominant culture there which highly respects age. Also, the whole killing people thing...
All the nations, especially those that industrialized quickly are facing this problem. As industrialization correlates strongly with smaller families (don't need children to work the farm). But China compounded it with the one child policy. And they industrialized faster than almost anyone. India went straight for a service economy, that may be even worse. Russia... Not sure about Brazil.
The US delayed its demographic collapse via immigration. It might even effect a soft landing relative to the rest of the world if it can ramp back up manufacturing in a way that doesn't destroy shared resources or enforce permanent underclasses leading to revolt. That isn't an easy task.
- inconceivable 3y agopretty much everyone else with a public platform in geopolitical analysis has a low opinion of zeihan. this includes shapiro, papic, and other stratfor alumni who i pay attention to. zeihan's analysis is performative and is designed to make him money, not provide value to anyone in the real world. wow, america's geography makes it invincible and china will collapse any day now because they suck at innovating. that's super insightful and original. i definitely haven't been hearing that repeated ad nauseum for literally 40 years.
- galangalalgol 3y agoI'd like to read them, his stuff does seem entertainment heavy. And I spot some errors in places I have expertise, if small ones. Not this Shapiro right? This one is mostly agreeing with Zeihan. https://www.dailywire.com/news/bank-on-it-ben-shapiro-predicts-the-one-move-china-will-make-towards-taiwan-thanks-to-the-biden-administration https://www.dailywire.com/news/bank-on-it-ben-shapiro-predic...
- inconceivable 3y agono. jacob shapiro of cognitive investments.
- galangalalgol 3y agoThanks! it doesn't seem like he differs too much in overall predictions, just less sensationalism for entertainment value.