3 ms·
With respect to potential TW conflict the TLDR is PRCs ongoing massive distributed renewable rollout at PRC scale is very much part of strategic energy security
by dirtyid 3y ago
With respect to potential TW conflict the TLDR is PRCs ongoing massive distributed renewable rollout at PRC scale is very much part of strategic energy security in event of war.
Issue in TW conflict limited to TW and PRC is scale of asymnetry too large and growing - TW unable to stockpile enough survivable fire power to meaningfully degrade PRC energy production let alone long term, especially massive PRC MIC located inland. PRCs tangible advantage is her industrial base too large to be disrupted at scale and for long. For reference medium term nuclear as % of energy mix will go from 5% to 10% (2035) which is enough to ration around during war. Long term 2050+ still "only" 20-25%. Consider scale of PRC's current distributed renewable rollout efforts is enough to power all residential use this year and likely substantial % of industrial use in coming years. Hence PRC coastal nuclear still most enticing targets even if that's warcrime territory (queue blowing up 3 gorges meme). Ultimately if TW tried to hit PRC nuclear they better commit to massive preemptive strike on reactors with their entire inventory since substations/transformers (which PRC makes indigenously) can be rapidly replaced. There's no opportunity for TW to reevaluate since PRC has stockpiles to disrupt TW completely and prevent followup strikes in retaliation and TW can't be meaningfully resupplied let alone reconstruct under motivated PRC attack. And if PRC preempts, TW options even more limited. It's a matter of who can rebuild infra and out attrite, which overwhelmingly favours PRC. WW2 strategic bombing worked for US because adversaries couldnt disrupt CONUS logistics. Even that is increasingly challenged if US commits to total war with PRC in TW scenario since PRC is boostering global strike capabilities which will hopefully limit scope of war due to mutual homefront vunerability (between PRC and US at least).