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Their population decreased by 800k this year, why do you think they need 40m people? Yes I do think there's a solution, and no I don't think it's worth getting

Their population decreased by 800k this year, why do you think they need 40m people? Yes I do think there's a solution, and no I don't think it's worth getting alarmed over these headlines. But I also don't feel qualified to be discussing it on any advanced level. I'm just going with my gut and personal observations here.

famouswaffles 3y ago
There are big gaps between 1. the start of the problem, 2. when the first signs start showing and 3. when the collapse hits. Japan is at 2. 3 won't hit for a few decades more, likely around 2060 or so. What makes this problem unintuitive unlike most problems is that once the beginning signs hit, it's too late to avoid 3 for at least some time. You can shorten the length of the collapse but it is happening. Now let's think and simply. We're in the year 2055. If the problem in 2055 is that there aren't enough workers then that means the necessary children consistently weren't born starting some 80 to about some 30 years ago. Importing immigrants or suddenly giving birth back in 2023 won't change that fact. The real problem had already happened even then.You can't change the past. Japan didn't need those children in 2023+ for the problem in 2055. They didn't need those immigrants. If you import the immigrants or have the children in 2023, it's to shorten the duration of the collapse not to avoid it. Japan could say they brought in a million immigrants tomorrow and literally nothing changes for 2055 prospects. But by the time they do need those workers in 2055, they will need so much more of them (because of how exponential the population decline will be. See the table)
- INTPenis 3y ago
  Sure but I've seen this problem solved, on a smaller scale but still. Sweden also had declining birth rates, maybe they still do, and now almost every nursing home is staffed by immigrants. I'd say at least 98% of nursing staff is from outside Sweden, mostly 1st generation immigrants. So there is absolutely a solution in immigration.
  - famouswaffles 3y ago
    >Sure but I've seen this problem solved, on a smaller scale but still. No you haven't. 1. Sweden's hasn't had declining rates for either as long or as low as Japan. Japan have a bigger share of aged people already and the real problems have yet to hit. Sweden have solved nothing lol. They're basically Year 40 on the table. The pyramid is only going to get so much worse. Immigrants taking care of the old now is the least of the myriad of problems that will hit.

famouswaffles 3y ago

There are big gaps between 1. the start of the problem, 2. when the first signs start showing and 3. when the collapse hits. Japan is at 2. 3 won't hit for a few decades more, likely around 2060 or so. What makes this problem unintuitive unlike most problems is that once the beginning signs hit, it's too late to avoid 3 for at least some time. You can shorten the length of the collapse but it is happening. Now let's think and simply. We're in the year 2055. If the problem in 2055 is that there aren't enough workers then that means the necessary children consistently weren't born starting some 80 to about some 30 years ago. Importing immigrants or suddenly giving birth back in 2023 won't change that fact. The real problem had already happened even then.You can't change the past. Japan didn't need those children in 2023+ for the problem in 2055. They didn't need those immigrants. If you import the immigrants or have the children in 2023, it's to shorten the duration of the collapse not to avoid it. Japan could say they brought in a million immigrants tomorrow and literally nothing changes for 2055 prospects. But by the time they do need those workers in 2055, they will need so much more of them (because of how exponential the population decline will be. See the table)

INTPenis 3y ago
Sure but I've seen this problem solved, on a smaller scale but still. Sweden also had declining birth rates, maybe they still do, and now almost every nursing home is staffed by immigrants. I'd say at least 98% of nursing staff is from outside Sweden, mostly 1st generation immigrants. So there is absolutely a solution in immigration.
- famouswaffles 3y ago
  >Sure but I've seen this problem solved, on a smaller scale but still. No you haven't. 1. Sweden's hasn't had declining rates for either as long or as low as Japan. Japan have a bigger share of aged people already and the real problems have yet to hit. Sweden have solved nothing lol. They're basically Year 40 on the table. The pyramid is only going to get so much worse. Immigrants taking care of the old now is the least of the myriad of problems that will hit.