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Is anyone seriously proposing a wind turbine monoculture for energy generation?

jl6 3y ago
Pick your desired percentage of wind in the future energy mix. Even if we say 25%, it's still going to need millions of turbines. And our energy demands are not shrinking.
- Shaanie 3y ago
  My country produces around 20% of its energy from wind nowadays, 2010 it was less than 3%. Seems to work just fine and is growing rapidly.
- matthewdgreen 3y ago
  We built about a million aircraft globally during WWII (specifically: 1939-1945). I’m not saying the average WWII airplane compares perfectly to a modern wind turbine, but the technology and industrial base we used to do this was also vastly more primitive. So yes, I’d bet that a sufficiently-motivated human society can crank out a million turbines over a multi-decade time span. You can Google the IEA “Net Zero by 2050” report to find estimates of how much offshore wind capacity there is (it’s a lot.) It does illustrate the specific challenge of this energy transition. If a given energy technology isn’t being mass-produced in factories, it’s basically irrelevant given the scale of what we need to do.
- Someone 3y ago
  > And our energy demands are not shrinking. I think they should be, but even if they aren’t, there still is the observation that a kWh of electricity often can produce more of what we really want (light, motion, compute power) than a kWh of oil (about the only thing we can efficiently convert that into is heat) For example, Google tells me - petrol is about 12 kWh/kg, - the modern fiat 500 has a 47l gas tank, - Tesla sells cars with 50kwh batteries. Yet, that Fiat doesn’t have ten times the rang of the larger Tesla.
  - landemva 3y ago
    Energy consumption is an indicator of living standards. I hope we harness and use much more reliable energy!
    - adrianN 3y ago
      Energy consumption is a bad indicator of living standards. Everything that defines my living standard has become much more energy efficient during my lifetime. I have for example more light in my house than I used to and consume about 20% of the energy I used to. My induction stove uses a lot less energy than the wood fired stove my grandma had at her house. My current computer uses about a tenth of the electricity of my computer twenty years ago and does much more. An electric car uses about a third of the energy of a gas car. A heat pump uses about a fourth of the energy of a fossil furnace.
      - landemva 3y ago
        Induction stove. Electric car. Heat pump. Those are indicators of being born in privilege. What about your AC in car and hotel and home? USA setting off nukes and Britain fire bombing Dresden are examples of energy use which is wasteful and polluting. There are always exceptions to one broad indicator, in this example energy usage. Technology improvement typically brings more efficient use of resources and less pollution. Energy consumption, as one indicator, tracks with increased GDP and increased standard of living.
        Gwypaas 3y ago
        Many advanced economies have decoupled energy use from economic growth. https://ourworldindata.org/energy-gdp-decoupling https://ourworldindata.org/energy-gdp-decoupling
        landemva 3y ago
        USA, and some western Europe, exported dirty manufacturing energy use and pollution outside the borders. Any nation rich or strong enough to export pollution of manufacturing will tend to show the numbers you highlight.

jl6 3y ago

Pick your desired percentage of wind in the future energy mix. Even if we say 25%, it's still going to need millions of turbines. And our energy demands are not shrinking.

Shaanie 3y ago
My country produces around 20% of its energy from wind nowadays, 2010 it was less than 3%. Seems to work just fine and is growing rapidly.
matthewdgreen 3y ago
We built about a million aircraft globally during WWII (specifically: 1939-1945). I’m not saying the average WWII airplane compares perfectly to a modern wind turbine, but the technology and industrial base we used to do this was also vastly more primitive. So yes, I’d bet that a sufficiently-motivated human society can crank out a million turbines over a multi-decade time span. You can Google the IEA “Net Zero by 2050” report to find estimates of how much offshore wind capacity there is (it’s a lot.) It does illustrate the specific challenge of this energy transition. If a given energy technology isn’t being mass-produced in factories, it’s basically irrelevant given the scale of what we need to do.
Someone 3y ago
> And our energy demands are not shrinking. I think they should be, but even if they aren’t, there still is the observation that a kWh of electricity often can produce more of what we really want (light, motion, compute power) than a kWh of oil (about the only thing we can efficiently convert that into is heat) For example, Google tells me - petrol is about 12 kWh/kg, - the modern fiat 500 has a 47l gas tank, - Tesla sells cars with 50kwh batteries. Yet, that Fiat doesn’t have ten times the rang of the larger Tesla.
- landemva 3y ago
  Energy consumption is an indicator of living standards. I hope we harness and use much more reliable energy!
  - adrianN 3y ago
    Energy consumption is a bad indicator of living standards. Everything that defines my living standard has become much more energy efficient during my lifetime. I have for example more light in my house than I used to and consume about 20% of the energy I used to. My induction stove uses a lot less energy than the wood fired stove my grandma had at her house. My current computer uses about a tenth of the electricity of my computer twenty years ago and does much more. An electric car uses about a third of the energy of a gas car. A heat pump uses about a fourth of the energy of a fossil furnace.
    - landemva 3y ago
      Induction stove. Electric car. Heat pump. Those are indicators of being born in privilege. What about your AC in car and hotel and home? USA setting off nukes and Britain fire bombing Dresden are examples of energy use which is wasteful and polluting. There are always exceptions to one broad indicator, in this example energy usage. Technology improvement typically brings more efficient use of resources and less pollution. Energy consumption, as one indicator, tracks with increased GDP and increased standard of living.
      - Gwypaas 3y ago
        Many advanced economies have decoupled energy use from economic growth. https://ourworldindata.org/energy-gdp-decoupling https://ourworldindata.org/energy-gdp-decoupling
        landemva 3y ago
        USA, and some western Europe, exported dirty manufacturing energy use and pollution outside the borders. Any nation rich or strong enough to export pollution of manufacturing will tend to show the numbers you highlight.