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It has Indonesia immediately to its north with a population of 275 million, it's not far away from potential trouble.

zarzavat 3y ago
That’s not a fair characterization. Indonesia has suffered at the hands of two empires, first the Dutch then the Japanese. It is not an expansionist power or a threat to Australia any more than New Zealand is. Just because people look different or have different beliefs doesn’t make them threats, that’s a primitive form of thinking that humanity ought to move away from.
- dkjaudyeqooe 3y ago
  Beyond the population and proximity, I'm not characterising anything. You're reading in a lot into my comment. But in Australian politics, Indonesia as a potential, albeit very unlikely, threat has been discussed, with the point being that 275 million people in a somewhat politically unstable country has that potential. It's only in this century that Indonesia has become a functioning democracy and has had authoritarian and sometimes brutal leaders, slaughtering hundreds of thousands, in the not so distant past. It currently has relatively good relations with Australia but they are not close or secure. No one is accusing them of anything but there is a non-zero chance of them becoming a threat.
  - dirtyid 3y ago
    From 1980s-2010s, AU military training opfor was the "Musorian Armed Forces" aka Indonesia. ID recent military presentation on ballistic missiles also highlighted AU as potential target (and Singpore, Philiphines, SCS). Reality is ID defense will modernize with time threat perception is correlated to capabilities.
ethbr0 3y ago
From the US perspective, SE Asia's population demographics make economic access a key determinant of the future. If China can credibly restrict shipping in the south of the South China sea, then that accrues substantial economic power in the coming decades. Which is another way of saying that if Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines don't believe in the US's regional power projection, they'll allow China to do as it wants. In any escalation scenario, Guam gets plastered. Taiwan is blockaded. Okinawa is... well, that's a wildcard. But Australia has land. A LOT of land. So establishing closer military ties (also with the Philippines) affords freedom of dispersement. Which in turn increases US retaliatory options in the case of escalation. Which makes sudden escalation less likely, as China has less to gain from it. Or, in other words, the Pacific is now Europe ~1960, with the US trying to establish a credible capability to surge into the region in the event of hostilities.

That’s not a fair characterization. Indonesia has suffered at the hands of two empires, first the Dutch then the Japanese. It is not an expansionist power or a threat to Australia any more than New Zealand is. Just because people look different or have different beliefs doesn’t make them threats, that’s a primitive form of thinking that humanity ought to move away from.

dkjaudyeqooe 3y ago
Beyond the population and proximity, I'm not characterising anything. You're reading in a lot into my comment. But in Australian politics, Indonesia as a potential, albeit very unlikely, threat has been discussed, with the point being that 275 million people in a somewhat politically unstable country has that potential. It's only in this century that Indonesia has become a functioning democracy and has had authoritarian and sometimes brutal leaders, slaughtering hundreds of thousands, in the not so distant past. It currently has relatively good relations with Australia but they are not close or secure. No one is accusing them of anything but there is a non-zero chance of them becoming a threat.
- dirtyid 3y ago
  From 1980s-2010s, AU military training opfor was the "Musorian Armed Forces" aka Indonesia. ID recent military presentation on ballistic missiles also highlighted AU as potential target (and Singpore, Philiphines, SCS). Reality is ID defense will modernize with time threat perception is correlated to capabilities.

ethbr0 3y ago

From the US perspective, SE Asia's population demographics make economic access a key determinant of the future. If China can credibly restrict shipping in the south of the South China sea, then that accrues substantial economic power in the coming decades. Which is another way of saying that if Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines don't believe in the US's regional power projection, they'll allow China to do as it wants. In any escalation scenario, Guam gets plastered. Taiwan is blockaded. Okinawa is... well, that's a wildcard. But Australia has land. A LOT of land. So establishing closer military ties (also with the Philippines) affords freedom of dispersement. Which in turn increases US retaliatory options in the case of escalation. Which makes sudden escalation less likely, as China has less to gain from it. Or, in other words, the Pacific is now Europe ~1960, with the US trying to establish a credible capability to surge into the region in the event of hostilities.