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It's funny how headlines like this are instantly alarming, but they really shouldn't be. A natural population decline is the best thing we can have right now. I

It's funny how headlines like this are instantly alarming, but they really shouldn't be. A natural population decline is the best thing we can have right now. It's not hard to make babies, it's in fact too easy. Imagine if a breed of deer living in a restricted space naturally controlled its population in relation to the resources of their living space. That would be amazing! More close to home, but a lot less popular, is the fact that the population of Croatia has also been steadily declining ever since the massive exodus of the last civil war. From 1990 to 2023 the population of Croatia has declined from 4.8m to 4m, that's an even greater decline than Japan viewed in percent of population. Very alarming if it's part of your culture and language disappearing.

spaceman_2020 3y ago
You’re not wrong, but our entire economic system is built on the idea that the pensioners will be supported by a steady stream of tax paying younger workers. When that stream collapses, paying for the pensioners becomes much harder.
- INTPenis 3y ago
  Sure, but 800k out of 120m people is nowhere near affecting the senior citizens of the future. Time will tell if it's a stabilizing change that will oscillate around some baseline, or if it will continue to drastically decline. And even if a drastic decline is the future we're looking at, there is no shortage of immigrants who are willing to take menial jobs for low pay. As far as I know Japan hasn't been an inviting immigration destination so far. There are policy changes to make that could easily inject some population to the country.
pjc50 3y ago
> Imagine if a breed of deer living in a restricted space naturally controlled its population in relation to the resources in their living space Indeed. People seem to forget that the alternative to "contraception-limited" is "death-limited". In Scotland, since killing all the natural predators, we have to keep culling the deer in order to maintain the ecosystem.
NovemberWhiskey 3y ago
>It's funny how headlines like this are instantly alarming, but they really shouldn't be. A natural population decline is the best thing we can have right now. Japan's crisis is in the overlap of economics and demographics. The shrinking economically active population cannot hope to sustain the growing population of retirees.
- seunosewa 3y ago
  Retirees will need to accept less support from the working population. Measures like increasing the retirement age will help a lot. Slashing retirement benefits.
  - Ekaros 3y ago
    I have always wondered did the boomer generation get to exploit everyone? Their parents were used to much lower living standards thus also accepted them in retirement. And now their children which there is less than them, have to also pay their retirement. While many of them might not have stored enough economic value during their working life... And sadly I think they might get away with it...
famouswaffles 3y ago
This is just wrong lol. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36920150 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36920150
- steveBK123 3y ago
  Yeah I think the degrowthers and others underestimate some of the ugly political decisions & societal preference that will ensue in such a world. Paying some taxes to social security / medicare / etc works out OK when those go to cover 0.5 to 1 dependent per worker. When that 1 workers income needs to support 1.5 .. 2+ things will get ugly.
- AgentOrange1234 3y ago
  Your argument seems to hinge on: “at some point, the working population will be far far lower than what is necessary to support the rest.” That’s a completely reasonable take in, at a minimum, pre-industrial times. There is a long dream that “increases in productivity will allow us to live lives of leisure.” This is obviously not how things have turned out, but it isn’t clear to me that we cannot choose this. Anyway, what percentage of us actually need to work? Where is the point that we cannot cross? I am skeptical that Japan will come anywhere close.
  - NovemberWhiskey 3y ago
    >Where is the point that we cannot cross? I am skeptical that Japan will come anywhere close. Japan's national pension scheme is "pay as you go", meaning that benefits for retirees today are paid out of the contributions going into the scheme today. Japan has already reached the point of having less than two workers per retiree. By 2050, that number is projected to be more like 1.5: the writing is on the wall.
    - AgentOrange1234 3y ago
      Those are interesting numbers but they only are half of the equation. Is this a crisis depends on: how productive are Japan’s workers? Something like 80+% of America worked in agriculture in 1800 but now it’s around 10%. The information revolution has similarly made so many things incredibly more efficient. So how far does that ratio need to go before it’s actually untenable? And how much of whatever breaks do we actually need?
twobitshifter 3y ago
Japan isn’t naturally controlling its population, there’s no agency behind its declining birth rate, unlike somewhere like China where the one child policy was a purposeful government population control. The Japan population is not tied in any way to Japan’s resource limitations. On top of that, it is harder to make babies now than ever, given declining fertility rates.
- oska 3y ago
  > there’s no agency behind its declining birth rate There's the agency of every fertile Japanese couple deciding whether to have children and how many. That's a lot more natural than an extremist government imposed policy like China's One Child Policy.

spaceman_2020 3y ago

You’re not wrong, but our entire economic system is built on the idea that the pensioners will be supported by a steady stream of tax paying younger workers. When that stream collapses, paying for the pensioners becomes much harder.

INTPenis 3y ago
Sure, but 800k out of 120m people is nowhere near affecting the senior citizens of the future. Time will tell if it's a stabilizing change that will oscillate around some baseline, or if it will continue to drastically decline. And even if a drastic decline is the future we're looking at, there is no shortage of immigrants who are willing to take menial jobs for low pay. As far as I know Japan hasn't been an inviting immigration destination so far. There are policy changes to make that could easily inject some population to the country.

pjc50 3y ago

> Imagine if a breed of deer living in a restricted space naturally controlled its population in relation to the resources in their living space Indeed. People seem to forget that the alternative to "contraception-limited" is "death-limited". In Scotland, since killing all the natural predators, we have to keep culling the deer in order to maintain the ecosystem.

NovemberWhiskey 3y ago

>It's funny how headlines like this are instantly alarming, but they really shouldn't be. A natural population decline is the best thing we can have right now. Japan's crisis is in the overlap of economics and demographics. The shrinking economically active population cannot hope to sustain the growing population of retirees.

seunosewa 3y ago
Retirees will need to accept less support from the working population. Measures like increasing the retirement age will help a lot. Slashing retirement benefits.
- Ekaros 3y ago
  I have always wondered did the boomer generation get to exploit everyone? Their parents were used to much lower living standards thus also accepted them in retirement. And now their children which there is less than them, have to also pay their retirement. While many of them might not have stored enough economic value during their working life... And sadly I think they might get away with it...

famouswaffles 3y ago

This is just wrong lol. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36920150 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36920150

steveBK123 3y ago
Yeah I think the degrowthers and others underestimate some of the ugly political decisions & societal preference that will ensue in such a world. Paying some taxes to social security / medicare / etc works out OK when those go to cover 0.5 to 1 dependent per worker. When that 1 workers income needs to support 1.5 .. 2+ things will get ugly.
AgentOrange1234 3y ago
Your argument seems to hinge on: “at some point, the working population will be far far lower than what is necessary to support the rest.” That’s a completely reasonable take in, at a minimum, pre-industrial times. There is a long dream that “increases in productivity will allow us to live lives of leisure.” This is obviously not how things have turned out, but it isn’t clear to me that we cannot choose this. Anyway, what percentage of us actually need to work? Where is the point that we cannot cross? I am skeptical that Japan will come anywhere close.
- NovemberWhiskey 3y ago
  >Where is the point that we cannot cross? I am skeptical that Japan will come anywhere close. Japan's national pension scheme is "pay as you go", meaning that benefits for retirees today are paid out of the contributions going into the scheme today. Japan has already reached the point of having less than two workers per retiree. By 2050, that number is projected to be more like 1.5: the writing is on the wall.
  - AgentOrange1234 3y ago
    Those are interesting numbers but they only are half of the equation. Is this a crisis depends on: how productive are Japan’s workers? Something like 80+% of America worked in agriculture in 1800 but now it’s around 10%. The information revolution has similarly made so many things incredibly more efficient. So how far does that ratio need to go before it’s actually untenable? And how much of whatever breaks do we actually need?

twobitshifter 3y ago

Japan isn’t naturally controlling its population, there’s no agency behind its declining birth rate, unlike somewhere like China where the one child policy was a purposeful government population control. The Japan population is not tied in any way to Japan’s resource limitations. On top of that, it is harder to make babies now than ever, given declining fertility rates.

oska 3y ago
> there’s no agency behind its declining birth rate There's the agency of every fertile Japanese couple deciding whether to have children and how many. That's a lot more natural than an extremist government imposed policy like China's One Child Policy.