4 ms·

“It is very much outside our understanding of this system.” This is what worries me: climate change leading to entirely new regimes that we don't understand an

by tda 3y ago

“It is very much outside our understanding of this system.” This is what worries me: climate change leading to entirely new regimes that we don't understand and thus can't model or predict with any accuracy. You just can't build a seawall for a sealevel rise of between 50 and 300 cm somewhere in about 20 to 50 years. Or for heatwaves of maximum 35 to 45 degrees, precipitation of max 20-100mm/hour, etc. Climate adaptation will be even more challenging if we don't know what we are adapting to

BasedAnon 3y ago
faster... than expected you say? https://www.fasterthanexpected.com/ https://www.fasterthanexpected.com/
myshpa 3y ago
> in about 20 to 50 years That's the optimistic timeline :) I've read somewhere that up to half of Antarctic sea ice could easily disappear in hours or days, given right conditions. Greenland is not looking good either. https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/coming-soon https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/coming-soon When Greenland melts completely global sea levels will rise about 20 feet, or 7 meters. We aren’t talking about “if” anymore. We are way past that. Now, we are discussing “how fast”. It could happen much faster than we used to think. With “Global Warming” temperature is only half of the equation. The other half is speed. With Global Warming, the faster it happens, the worse it is. Very funny clip on the topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNYp6oc37ds https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNYp6oc37ds
- PartiallyTyped 3y ago
  The sheer banality of the situation is astounding.
- jacquesm 3y ago
  That's the big problem with anything involving feeback loops. There is a domain where it's unstable and then a small change can cause big and surprisingly rapid effects. Nature is full of such tricky stuff and there is unfortunately no manual so we are learning a lot of this stuff by experiencing it first hand.
  - _y5hn 3y ago
    Analogy time: You use a wooden chair for reaching up in high places. Imagine you're a short person and utterly dependent on this chair. It works for 20 year, and it helps you reach what you need in all that time. You never notice much except for some familiar creaking. The chair works every time, and you just take it for granted as a handy tool to have around. But when the wood in that chair snaps, it happens all at once. Even if just a single part of that chair momentarily fails. Gravity, leverage, falling backwards with no way to protect your head. And it happens so fast, there's no time to think about it while it happens. Luckily your husband put a cushion on the floor exactly where you'd fall with your neck, because he anticipated this happening. He just didn't know when it'll happen. You wake up a bit dazed, and a bit wiser to how the world works. How fragile and complex systems can fail all at once and too fast.
    - myshpa 3y ago
      Analogy time: You fall, and the floor gives way. You plummet through the floor, down to the basement, and sever an artery on the way down.
      - 6510 3y ago
        All the king's horses and all the king's men couldn't put Humpty together again.
basisword 3y ago
If we aren’t able to predict it then we need to assume the worst. Start moving inland/to higher areas now. I’m not optimistic though. I don’t understand why people (with the means) continue to live and rebuild in areas that regularly get savaged by hurricanes, earthquakes and other natural disasters.
- hotpotamus 3y ago
  I think of Buckminster Fuller's "Spaceship Earth" concept of how we are all the crew on a spaceship and need to work together, and Jim Morrison's quote, "I'm just trying to get my kicks before the whole shithouse goes up in flames", and I believe the model that humanity operates under is most accurately summarized as "Shithouse Earth".
- myshpa 3y ago
  > Start moving inland/to higher areas now ... hurricanes, earthquakes and other natural disasters Crop failures, famines, civilization collapse, wars, violence, slavery ...
lm28469 3y ago
> This is what worries me: climate change leading to entirely new regimes that we don't understand and thus can't model or predict with any accuracy. People have been talking about that for a while, we're playing god right now but we have no idea what's coming. It's the same thing every time we try something with nature, what seems easy and simple turns out to have massive side effects we couldn't imagine because every little thing is inter dependant
- Gigachad 3y ago
  Meanwhile HN will freak out over some loose study about aspartame or nano plastics, but dismiss extremely sound research on climate change. Clearly brainwashed by decades of corporate marketing.

by tda 3y ago

BasedAnon 3y ago

faster... than expected you say? https://www.fasterthanexpected.com/ https://www.fasterthanexpected.com/

myshpa 3y ago

> in about 20 to 50 years That's the optimistic timeline :) I've read somewhere that up to half of Antarctic sea ice could easily disappear in hours or days, given right conditions. Greenland is not looking good either. https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/coming-soon https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/coming-soon When Greenland melts completely global sea levels will rise about 20 feet, or 7 meters. We aren’t talking about “if” anymore. We are way past that. Now, we are discussing “how fast”. It could happen much faster than we used to think. With “Global Warming” temperature is only half of the equation. The other half is speed. With Global Warming, the faster it happens, the worse it is. Very funny clip on the topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNYp6oc37ds https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNYp6oc37ds

PartiallyTyped 3y ago
The sheer banality of the situation is astounding.
jacquesm 3y ago
That's the big problem with anything involving feeback loops. There is a domain where it's unstable and then a small change can cause big and surprisingly rapid effects. Nature is full of such tricky stuff and there is unfortunately no manual so we are learning a lot of this stuff by experiencing it first hand.
- _y5hn 3y ago
  Analogy time: You use a wooden chair for reaching up in high places. Imagine you're a short person and utterly dependent on this chair. It works for 20 year, and it helps you reach what you need in all that time. You never notice much except for some familiar creaking. The chair works every time, and you just take it for granted as a handy tool to have around. But when the wood in that chair snaps, it happens all at once. Even if just a single part of that chair momentarily fails. Gravity, leverage, falling backwards with no way to protect your head. And it happens so fast, there's no time to think about it while it happens. Luckily your husband put a cushion on the floor exactly where you'd fall with your neck, because he anticipated this happening. He just didn't know when it'll happen. You wake up a bit dazed, and a bit wiser to how the world works. How fragile and complex systems can fail all at once and too fast.
  - myshpa 3y ago
    Analogy time: You fall, and the floor gives way. You plummet through the floor, down to the basement, and sever an artery on the way down.
    - 6510 3y ago
      All the king's horses and all the king's men couldn't put Humpty together again.

basisword 3y ago

If we aren’t able to predict it then we need to assume the worst. Start moving inland/to higher areas now. I’m not optimistic though. I don’t understand why people (with the means) continue to live and rebuild in areas that regularly get savaged by hurricanes, earthquakes and other natural disasters.

hotpotamus 3y ago
I think of Buckminster Fuller's "Spaceship Earth" concept of how we are all the crew on a spaceship and need to work together, and Jim Morrison's quote, "I'm just trying to get my kicks before the whole shithouse goes up in flames", and I believe the model that humanity operates under is most accurately summarized as "Shithouse Earth".
myshpa 3y ago
> Start moving inland/to higher areas now ... hurricanes, earthquakes and other natural disasters Crop failures, famines, civilization collapse, wars, violence, slavery ...

lm28469 3y ago

> This is what worries me: climate change leading to entirely new regimes that we don't understand and thus can't model or predict with any accuracy. People have been talking about that for a while, we're playing god right now but we have no idea what's coming. It's the same thing every time we try something with nature, what seems easy and simple turns out to have massive side effects we couldn't imagine because every little thing is inter dependant

Gigachad 3y ago
Meanwhile HN will freak out over some loose study about aspartame or nano plastics, but dismiss extremely sound research on climate change. Clearly brainwashed by decades of corporate marketing.