4 ms·

What do you think are the odds of any sort of legal[1][2] immigration reform passing Congress in the near future? [1] Whether that's raising the EB cap (or exe

What do you think are the odds of any sort of legal[1][2] immigration reform passing Congress in the near future? [1] Whether that's raising the EB cap (or exempting one from the EB limit & allowing AOS after 2 years of waiting). [2] Delegating legal immigration control partially to the states (e.g. states being able to issue EB IVs or work NIVs beyond federal caps), since something like that might be more palatable to some parts of the Republican party, although I'm not sure if it'll be enough to overcome the general xenophobia of the GOP.

causi 3y ago
since something that might be more palatable to some parts of the Republican party, Quite unlikely. The line would be "California will just let everybody in and send 'em to our state!"
- winter_blue 3y ago
  I suppose Congress could create a concept of state-level permanent residence, but even then, if those permanent residents are allowed to become U.S. citizens, then they would be able to freely move to a red state, which the GOP again might find unpalatable. One finer point on this is that if state immigration policies are structured around a skills-based points-ranking, the prospective immigrants would all likely be high-income earners, who are fluent in English. It's an open question if such immigrants (especially, the ones who are not white) would still get treated like an unwanted anathema by GOP-led states.
  - anvuong 3y ago
    Pretty sure that woukd be unconstitutional, freedom of movement between states is there, so that concept is just bad.
proberts 3y ago
Unfortunately, I don't see any significant changes and I only say that because fundamental change in U.S. immigration law, even in the best of political times, is rare.
bubblethink 3y ago
1. There will be no increase in caps. AOS relief from Congress is also not likely. The executive can take some minor steps in making AOS a bit better depending on interest, but still unlikely. 2. Not happening. Nothing is getting through Congress anyway.
- winter_blue 3y ago
  > AOS relief from Congress is also not likely This isn’t right—it would be more accurate to say AOS relief from the GOP is not likely. Democrats nearly passed an amendment as part of the budget bill in 2021, which would have allowed AOS after a 2 year wait (exempt from EB caps). The bill was unfortunately blocked by the Parliamentarian: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/19/1038776731/in-a-blow-to-democrats-senate-official-blocks-immigration-reform-in-budget-bill https://www.npr.org/2021/09/19/1038776731/in-a-blow-to-democ... Democratic Senate leadership didn’t feel confident about the odds of overriding the Parliamentarian due to Sinema and Manchin, and that’s how that died. If (a) Democrats regain the House, and (b) Democrats get a Senate majority w/o conservatives like Manchin — then it’s basically guaranteed that immigration reform will pass. Immigration reform is an extremely high priority for the Democratic Party.
  - returningfory2 3y ago
    Immigration reform can't be passed through the Senate's special budget procedures (this is what the parliamentarian blocked) and thus will require 60 votes to pass. Partly for this reason I don't think we'll get immigration reform for the foreseeable future, at all.
  - bubblethink 3y ago
    I mean, sure, it may be GOP right now, but big picture, INA was passed in early 90s, and both parties have had their fair share of power over the last 30 years. If they didn't do anything over 30 years, it's hard to pin it on one party.
tjs8rj 3y ago
[flagged]

causi 3y ago

since something that might be more palatable to some parts of the Republican party, Quite unlikely. The line would be "California will just let everybody in and send 'em to our state!"

winter_blue 3y ago
I suppose Congress could create a concept of state-level permanent residence, but even then, if those permanent residents are allowed to become U.S. citizens, then they would be able to freely move to a red state, which the GOP again might find unpalatable. One finer point on this is that if state immigration policies are structured around a skills-based points-ranking, the prospective immigrants would all likely be high-income earners, who are fluent in English. It's an open question if such immigrants (especially, the ones who are not white) would still get treated like an unwanted anathema by GOP-led states.
- anvuong 3y ago
  Pretty sure that woukd be unconstitutional, freedom of movement between states is there, so that concept is just bad.

proberts 3y ago

Unfortunately, I don't see any significant changes and I only say that because fundamental change in U.S. immigration law, even in the best of political times, is rare.

bubblethink 3y ago

1. There will be no increase in caps. AOS relief from Congress is also not likely. The executive can take some minor steps in making AOS a bit better depending on interest, but still unlikely. 2. Not happening. Nothing is getting through Congress anyway.

winter_blue 3y ago
> AOS relief from Congress is also not likely This isn’t right—it would be more accurate to say AOS relief from the GOP is not likely. Democrats nearly passed an amendment as part of the budget bill in 2021, which would have allowed AOS after a 2 year wait (exempt from EB caps). The bill was unfortunately blocked by the Parliamentarian: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/19/1038776731/in-a-blow-to-democrats-senate-official-blocks-immigration-reform-in-budget-bill https://www.npr.org/2021/09/19/1038776731/in-a-blow-to-democ... Democratic Senate leadership didn’t feel confident about the odds of overriding the Parliamentarian due to Sinema and Manchin, and that’s how that died. If (a) Democrats regain the House, and (b) Democrats get a Senate majority w/o conservatives like Manchin — then it’s basically guaranteed that immigration reform will pass. Immigration reform is an extremely high priority for the Democratic Party.
- returningfory2 3y ago
  Immigration reform can't be passed through the Senate's special budget procedures (this is what the parliamentarian blocked) and thus will require 60 votes to pass. Partly for this reason I don't think we'll get immigration reform for the foreseeable future, at all.
- bubblethink 3y ago
  I mean, sure, it may be GOP right now, but big picture, INA was passed in early 90s, and both parties have had their fair share of power over the last 30 years. If they didn't do anything over 30 years, it's hard to pin it on one party.

tjs8rj 3y ago

[flagged]