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When von Neumann probes were proposed, we did not have working AI or 3D printers. They were merely concepts with some proof of concept systems in various states

by zikzak 3y ago

When von Neumann probes were proposed, we did not have working AI or 3D printers. They were merely concepts with some proof of concept systems in various states. We now have those technologies. It is trivial to extrapolate how effective they will be in say 10,000 years if we avoid blowing ourselves up. By then maybe we'll even have a sustainable Fusion reactor, general AI, and atomic matter deposition. Do you accept that von Neumann probes are a realistic proposition and that they could have easily blanketed the galaxy by now? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_spacecraft https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_spacecraft > It has been theorized[3] that a self-replicating starship utilizing relatively conventional theoretical methods of interstellar travel (i.e., no exotic faster-than-light propulsion, and speeds limited to an "average cruising speed" of 0.1c.) could spread throughout a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years. Half a million years. How long is that, really, in the grand scheme of things. And how close would we have to be to a civilization who released not one but millions of self-replicating probes for one to have visited us by now. I am not saying this happened, but please consider it could have, it might have, and what if it did. What if we are seeing these right now?

krapp 3y ago
Obviously Von Neumann probes haven't blanketed the galaxy as if they had, it would be obvious. Not to belabor a point I made in another comment, but the Fermi Paradox is a harsh taskmaster. So this leaves a few possibilities: 1) No intelligent, technologically advanced civilization exists in the universe other than ourselves, because any such civilization would have developed Von Neumann probes, which would mean the galaxy should be covered by them. 2) No intelligent, technologically advanced civilization has yet developed Von Neumann probes. 3) Von Neumann probes exist, but they haven't blanketed the galaxy. Since the math says it should be easy for them to do so, either they were developed relatively recently and simply haven't had the chance to do so, or else confounding factors exist which make the process of unbounded exponential growth more difficult than the math would suggest. None of these possibilities lead to the conclusion that UFOs (assuming the narrative presented by Grusch and other UFO believers) as described are more likely to be Von Neumann probes than not. Any nearby civilization that released millions of self-replicating probes should be noticeable. We've studied nearby stars, there's no evidence of any of the telltale signs of energy usage or heat that should accompany something on that scale. Also, there's no evidence of replication on the part of these objects within the UFO narrative. What are they feeding on? Where? Exponential replication means if they're here they should have stripped our solar system clean by now. Why haven't they? All of the behavior described resembles conventional, piloted craft rather than the expected behavior of swarms of Von Neumann probes.
- zikzak 3y ago
  So you are unwilling to consider what we have these people reporting are those probes? Without evidence, that's a really reasonable position that I can respect. Edit - I wanted to point out that the probes need not strip the system of resources. They might exist to observe, document, and relay data. Thank you for your response.
tsimionescu 3y ago
The problem with all things like this is that they are simple mathematical models being used to argue for highly advanced physics and engineering. I find it extremely likely that the real world would quickly turn this half a million years into many billions of years once you add in various inefficiencies and limits. After all, life is a self-replicating machine and it has taken slightly longer than that to consume a fraction of the resources on this planet.

by zikzak 3y ago

krapp 3y ago

Obviously Von Neumann probes haven't blanketed the galaxy as if they had, it would be obvious. Not to belabor a point I made in another comment, but the Fermi Paradox is a harsh taskmaster. So this leaves a few possibilities: 1) No intelligent, technologically advanced civilization exists in the universe other than ourselves, because any such civilization would have developed Von Neumann probes, which would mean the galaxy should be covered by them. 2) No intelligent, technologically advanced civilization has yet developed Von Neumann probes. 3) Von Neumann probes exist, but they haven't blanketed the galaxy. Since the math says it should be easy for them to do so, either they were developed relatively recently and simply haven't had the chance to do so, or else confounding factors exist which make the process of unbounded exponential growth more difficult than the math would suggest. None of these possibilities lead to the conclusion that UFOs (assuming the narrative presented by Grusch and other UFO believers) as described are more likely to be Von Neumann probes than not. Any nearby civilization that released millions of self-replicating probes should be noticeable. We've studied nearby stars, there's no evidence of any of the telltale signs of energy usage or heat that should accompany something on that scale. Also, there's no evidence of replication on the part of these objects within the UFO narrative. What are they feeding on? Where? Exponential replication means if they're here they should have stripped our solar system clean by now. Why haven't they? All of the behavior described resembles conventional, piloted craft rather than the expected behavior of swarms of Von Neumann probes.

zikzak 3y ago
So you are unwilling to consider what we have these people reporting are those probes? Without evidence, that's a really reasonable position that I can respect. Edit - I wanted to point out that the probes need not strip the system of resources. They might exist to observe, document, and relay data. Thank you for your response.

tsimionescu 3y ago

The problem with all things like this is that they are simple mathematical models being used to argue for highly advanced physics and engineering. I find it extremely likely that the real world would quickly turn this half a million years into many billions of years once you add in various inefficiencies and limits. After all, life is a self-replicating machine and it has taken slightly longer than that to consume a fraction of the resources on this planet.