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I'm having trouble imagining what you think could cause that. Katrina itself was about as devastating as flooding can get without being permanent, and we didn't

I'm having trouble imagining what you think could cause that. Katrina itself was about as devastating as flooding can get without being permanent, and we didn't lose New Orleans (nor has it ever even had half a million people in population). A nuclear bomb didn't even cause us to lose Hiroshima. Seemingly, the only thing that could do this is permanent sea-level rise (not a storm surge) on the level of Katrina or Sandy, but if this was possible, it wouldn't be local and we wouldn't lose one coastal city. We'd lose many. Have we ever lost an entire city other than Pompeii? Krakatoa killed everyone on Sebesi, but I don't believe had any permanent settlements of its own.

gottorf 3y ago
> we didn't lose New Orleans Not the GP, but on the topic of New Orleans, the metro area lost almost 30% of the population after Katrina, with it having recovered to pre-Katrina levels only in the last few years. So it was severely damaged, and the scars from it are still evident in the city. So this all depends on the GP's definition of "lost". I often laugh when people ask the question "why do people even live there? Why live somewhere below sea level?" without thinking about the fact that New Orleans is at the mouth of the biggest navigable river system in the world, home to some of the most productive farmland in the world, whose grains all get exported through that city. Until the Mississippi dries up, there will always be a sizable city there, in one shape or another.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  You cannot own property with a mortgage without insurance (and if you don't carry it, your mortgage servicer will force place it, at a much higher rate). If updated risk pricing prevents people from obtaining insurance (either because of high cost or total inability to have a policy written), real estate transactions dry up and people will have to move elsewhere to buy. Some buyers can probably perform cash transactions, rent properties out without insurance/self insure, perhaps business owners provide corp housing where a geographic benefit makes the operating model palatable, etc. But wage earners who desire to own RE will need to migrate if they need a mortgage. I'm paying ~$4k/year in homeowner's insurance through Florida's high risk pool. I know people closer to the coast paying as high as $12k/year. This is unsustainable, but necessary to accurately price risk. Real estate markets will respond accordingly. https://riskfactor.com/ https://riskfactor.com/ https://www.npr.org/2023/07/22/1186540332/how-climate-change-could-cause-a-home-insurance-meltdown https://www.npr.org/2023/07/22/1186540332/how-climate-change... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-28/treasury-s-yellen-says-extreme-weather-exposes-gaps-in-insurance-protection https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-28/treasury-... | https://archive.is/o2BiF https://archive.is/o2BiF https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/local-state/2023-04-04/florida-homeowners-to-face-a-projected-40-percent-increase-in-property-insurance-rates https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/local-state/2023-04-04/florida... https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/texas-home-insurance-prices-could-soon-become-the-highest-in-the-country/ https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/texas-home-insurance-pric... https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/homeowners-go-without-insurance-in-states-where-its-too-expensive-rcna88578 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/homeowners-go-with...
  - gottorf 3y ago
    People still owned homes before residential mortgages were a thing, which didn't take its modern shape until the 1930s. In uninsurable markets, liquidity will drop, prices will follow, until a new equilibrium forms. In sleepy beach towns where the primary use is recreation, that equilibrium will probably be very low. In New Orleans, the economic value is significantly higher and the equilibrium will be commensurately higher. Of course, in the real world, the federal government will step in to subsidize insurance (more than it already does) and keep that 30-year mortgage available in New Orleans, for the reasons I outlined in my original comment.
  - gottorf 3y ago
    > I know people closer to the coast paying as high as $12k/year. This is unsustainable Do you know how that $12k/year translates to a percentage of the home's value? Naturally, $12k/year insurance on a two-acre Palm Beach beachfront palace with imported Italian marble countertops and Viking ranges is different than $12k/year on some normal house. Speaking of unsustainable: I know people in New York (state, not city) that pay 2-3% a year, every year, on property taxes. It's a different kind of risk that needs to be priced ;-)
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      That property in question is ~$650k in the Orlando area. It is not an overly fancy home, having been inside it. My property value is ~$400k, 40 years old. ~40 miles from the coast, 90 ft above sea level. I will be required to carry flood insurance, even though there is no chance my property will ever flood. I do not plan on owning this property much longer (relocating to a climate change compatible geography, based on a 100 year time horizon). https://www.citizensfla.com/-/flood-insurance-coverage-rules-kick-in-for-citizens https://www.citizensfla.com/-/flood-insurance-coverage-rules...
      - gottorf 3y ago
        Got it, thanks for the answers. 1.85% of home value per year for that Orlando home is indeed quite pricey, with one source saying that the national average is about 0.35%[0]. Yours isn't cheap either at ~1%, but I would still consider that a reasonable price. Mine's roughly 0.5%. > relocating to a climate change compatible geography, based on a 100 year time horizon Careful who you trust: several studies of this sort ranked Vermont very highly in terms of being safe from climate change[1], but as I'm sure you've heard it recently suffered from catastrophic flooding. The final toll may come to single-digit percent of Vermont's GDP. I hear the Great Lakes area is popular for people desiring someplace safe from climate. I wish you the best with your relocation. [0]: https://www.creditdonkey.com/average-cost-homeowners-insurance.html https://www.creditdonkey.com/average-cost-homeowners-insuran... [1]: https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/ https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/
Tiktaalik 3y ago
It would probably be at least vaguely regional, like people abandoning all of the cities in some extra hot valley due to a lack of water and oppressive heat.
mlinksva 3y ago
Many https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Destroyed_cities https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Destroyed_cities though admittedly that's a broad list, and includes many that were devasted, but not lost, such has Hiroshima. But still, many.

gottorf 3y ago

> we didn't lose New Orleans Not the GP, but on the topic of New Orleans, the metro area lost almost 30% of the population after Katrina, with it having recovered to pre-Katrina levels only in the last few years. So it was severely damaged, and the scars from it are still evident in the city. So this all depends on the GP's definition of "lost". I often laugh when people ask the question "why do people even live there? Why live somewhere below sea level?" without thinking about the fact that New Orleans is at the mouth of the biggest navigable river system in the world, home to some of the most productive farmland in the world, whose grains all get exported through that city. Until the Mississippi dries up, there will always be a sizable city there, in one shape or another.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
You cannot own property with a mortgage without insurance (and if you don't carry it, your mortgage servicer will force place it, at a much higher rate). If updated risk pricing prevents people from obtaining insurance (either because of high cost or total inability to have a policy written), real estate transactions dry up and people will have to move elsewhere to buy. Some buyers can probably perform cash transactions, rent properties out without insurance/self insure, perhaps business owners provide corp housing where a geographic benefit makes the operating model palatable, etc. But wage earners who desire to own RE will need to migrate if they need a mortgage. I'm paying ~$4k/year in homeowner's insurance through Florida's high risk pool. I know people closer to the coast paying as high as $12k/year. This is unsustainable, but necessary to accurately price risk. Real estate markets will respond accordingly. https://riskfactor.com/ https://riskfactor.com/ https://www.npr.org/2023/07/22/1186540332/how-climate-change-could-cause-a-home-insurance-meltdown https://www.npr.org/2023/07/22/1186540332/how-climate-change... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-28/treasury-s-yellen-says-extreme-weather-exposes-gaps-in-insurance-protection https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-28/treasury-... | https://archive.is/o2BiF https://archive.is/o2BiF https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/local-state/2023-04-04/florida-homeowners-to-face-a-projected-40-percent-increase-in-property-insurance-rates https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/local-state/2023-04-04/florida... https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/texas-home-insurance-prices-could-soon-become-the-highest-in-the-country/ https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/texas-home-insurance-pric... https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/homeowners-go-without-insurance-in-states-where-its-too-expensive-rcna88578 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/homeowners-go-with...
- gottorf 3y ago
  People still owned homes before residential mortgages were a thing, which didn't take its modern shape until the 1930s. In uninsurable markets, liquidity will drop, prices will follow, until a new equilibrium forms. In sleepy beach towns where the primary use is recreation, that equilibrium will probably be very low. In New Orleans, the economic value is significantly higher and the equilibrium will be commensurately higher. Of course, in the real world, the federal government will step in to subsidize insurance (more than it already does) and keep that 30-year mortgage available in New Orleans, for the reasons I outlined in my original comment.
- gottorf 3y ago
  > I know people closer to the coast paying as high as $12k/year. This is unsustainable Do you know how that $12k/year translates to a percentage of the home's value? Naturally, $12k/year insurance on a two-acre Palm Beach beachfront palace with imported Italian marble countertops and Viking ranges is different than $12k/year on some normal house. Speaking of unsustainable: I know people in New York (state, not city) that pay 2-3% a year, every year, on property taxes. It's a different kind of risk that needs to be priced ;-)
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    That property in question is ~$650k in the Orlando area. It is not an overly fancy home, having been inside it. My property value is ~$400k, 40 years old. ~40 miles from the coast, 90 ft above sea level. I will be required to carry flood insurance, even though there is no chance my property will ever flood. I do not plan on owning this property much longer (relocating to a climate change compatible geography, based on a 100 year time horizon). https://www.citizensfla.com/-/flood-insurance-coverage-rules-kick-in-for-citizens https://www.citizensfla.com/-/flood-insurance-coverage-rules...
    - gottorf 3y ago
      Got it, thanks for the answers. 1.85% of home value per year for that Orlando home is indeed quite pricey, with one source saying that the national average is about 0.35%[0]. Yours isn't cheap either at ~1%, but I would still consider that a reasonable price. Mine's roughly 0.5%. > relocating to a climate change compatible geography, based on a 100 year time horizon Careful who you trust: several studies of this sort ranked Vermont very highly in terms of being safe from climate change[1], but as I'm sure you've heard it recently suffered from catastrophic flooding. The final toll may come to single-digit percent of Vermont's GDP. I hear the Great Lakes area is popular for people desiring someplace safe from climate. I wish you the best with your relocation. [0]: https://www.creditdonkey.com/average-cost-homeowners-insurance.html https://www.creditdonkey.com/average-cost-homeowners-insuran... [1]: https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/ https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/

Tiktaalik 3y ago

It would probably be at least vaguely regional, like people abandoning all of the cities in some extra hot valley due to a lack of water and oppressive heat.

mlinksva 3y ago

Many https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Destroyed_cities https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Destroyed_cities though admittedly that's a broad list, and includes many that were devasted, but not lost, such has Hiroshima. But still, many.