4 ms·

I believe there will be a major city (p. > 1,000,000) lost within the next decade due to a 1-2 punch of extreme heat and extreme weather. The only question rema

by 1970-01-01 3y ago

I believe there will be a major city (p. > 1,000,000) lost within the next decade due to a 1-2 punch of extreme heat and extreme weather. The only question remaining is if the uppercut will arrive as fire or flooding. Katrina, Harvey, and Sandy were the warning signs to 'get out now'.

nh23423fefe 3y ago
[flagged]
- 1970-01-01 3y ago
  No delusion is necessary. Insurance rate trends speak for themselves, and that is backed with hard data.
- draw_down 3y ago
  [dead]
gottorf 3y ago
Let's define your major city as a metro area population (not just city limits, since that's often arbitrary) of over a million. How would you define "lost"? A population decline of over 20%?
nonameiguess 3y ago
I'm having trouble imagining what you think could cause that. Katrina itself was about as devastating as flooding can get without being permanent, and we didn't lose New Orleans (nor has it ever even had half a million people in population). A nuclear bomb didn't even cause us to lose Hiroshima. Seemingly, the only thing that could do this is permanent sea-level rise (not a storm surge) on the level of Katrina or Sandy, but if this was possible, it wouldn't be local and we wouldn't lose one coastal city. We'd lose many. Have we ever lost an entire city other than Pompeii? Krakatoa killed everyone on Sebesi, but I don't believe had any permanent settlements of its own.
- gottorf 3y ago
  > we didn't lose New Orleans Not the GP, but on the topic of New Orleans, the metro area lost almost 30% of the population after Katrina, with it having recovered to pre-Katrina levels only in the last few years. So it was severely damaged, and the scars from it are still evident in the city. So this all depends on the GP's definition of "lost". I often laugh when people ask the question "why do people even live there? Why live somewhere below sea level?" without thinking about the fact that New Orleans is at the mouth of the biggest navigable river system in the world, home to some of the most productive farmland in the world, whose grains all get exported through that city. Until the Mississippi dries up, there will always be a sizable city there, in one shape or another.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    You cannot own property with a mortgage without insurance (and if you don't carry it, your mortgage servicer will force place it, at a much higher rate). If updated risk pricing prevents people from obtaining insurance (either because of high cost or total inability to have a policy written), real estate transactions dry up and people will have to move elsewhere to buy. Some buyers can probably perform cash transactions, rent properties out without insurance/self insure, perhaps business owners provide corp housing where a geographic benefit makes the operating model palatable, etc. But wage earners who desire to own RE will need to migrate if they need a mortgage. I'm paying ~$4k/year in homeowner's insurance through Florida's high risk pool. I know people closer to the coast paying as high as $12k/year. This is unsustainable, but necessary to accurately price risk. Real estate markets will respond accordingly. https://riskfactor.com/ https://riskfactor.com/ https://www.npr.org/2023/07/22/1186540332/how-climate-change-could-cause-a-home-insurance-meltdown https://www.npr.org/2023/07/22/1186540332/how-climate-change... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-28/treasury-s-yellen-says-extreme-weather-exposes-gaps-in-insurance-protection https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-28/treasury-... | https://archive.is/o2BiF https://archive.is/o2BiF https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/local-state/2023-04-04/florida-homeowners-to-face-a-projected-40-percent-increase-in-property-insurance-rates https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/local-state/2023-04-04/florida... https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/texas-home-insurance-prices-could-soon-become-the-highest-in-the-country/ https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/texas-home-insurance-pric... https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/homeowners-go-without-insurance-in-states-where-its-too-expensive-rcna88578 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/homeowners-go-with...
Hammershaft 3y ago
You should make a prediction market on manifold.markets or metaculus & commit to the bet. I think it would be an interesting market. https://www.metaculus.com/home/ https://www.metaculus.com/home/ https://manifold.markets/home https://manifold.markets/home
myshpa 3y ago
Or sea rise. Or droughts.
nocoiner 3y ago
I think I would take the other side of this bet. I do think that there will be at least one major U.S. urban area that is rendered permanently uninhabitable at some point this century, and the first one will be somewhere in southern Florida, but I don’t have any confidence in timing or specific local geographies. My prediction is that large-scale abandonment will be due to persistent flooding and inundation that can’t be solved with sea walls/gates or levees, and not a hurricane-induced flood or storm surge. I don’t think that will happen in the next 10 years, though it certainly could.

nh23423fefe 3y ago

[flagged]

1970-01-01 3y ago
No delusion is necessary. Insurance rate trends speak for themselves, and that is backed with hard data.
draw_down 3y ago
[dead]

gottorf 3y ago

Let's define your major city as a metro area population (not just city limits, since that's often arbitrary) of over a million. How would you define "lost"? A population decline of over 20%?

nonameiguess 3y ago

I'm having trouble imagining what you think could cause that. Katrina itself was about as devastating as flooding can get without being permanent, and we didn't lose New Orleans (nor has it ever even had half a million people in population). A nuclear bomb didn't even cause us to lose Hiroshima. Seemingly, the only thing that could do this is permanent sea-level rise (not a storm surge) on the level of Katrina or Sandy, but if this was possible, it wouldn't be local and we wouldn't lose one coastal city. We'd lose many. Have we ever lost an entire city other than Pompeii? Krakatoa killed everyone on Sebesi, but I don't believe had any permanent settlements of its own.

gottorf 3y ago
> we didn't lose New Orleans Not the GP, but on the topic of New Orleans, the metro area lost almost 30% of the population after Katrina, with it having recovered to pre-Katrina levels only in the last few years. So it was severely damaged, and the scars from it are still evident in the city. So this all depends on the GP's definition of "lost". I often laugh when people ask the question "why do people even live there? Why live somewhere below sea level?" without thinking about the fact that New Orleans is at the mouth of the biggest navigable river system in the world, home to some of the most productive farmland in the world, whose grains all get exported through that city. Until the Mississippi dries up, there will always be a sizable city there, in one shape or another.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  You cannot own property with a mortgage without insurance (and if you don't carry it, your mortgage servicer will force place it, at a much higher rate). If updated risk pricing prevents people from obtaining insurance (either because of high cost or total inability to have a policy written), real estate transactions dry up and people will have to move elsewhere to buy. Some buyers can probably perform cash transactions, rent properties out without insurance/self insure, perhaps business owners provide corp housing where a geographic benefit makes the operating model palatable, etc. But wage earners who desire to own RE will need to migrate if they need a mortgage. I'm paying ~$4k/year in homeowner's insurance through Florida's high risk pool. I know people closer to the coast paying as high as $12k/year. This is unsustainable, but necessary to accurately price risk. Real estate markets will respond accordingly. https://riskfactor.com/ https://riskfactor.com/ https://www.npr.org/2023/07/22/1186540332/how-climate-change-could-cause-a-home-insurance-meltdown https://www.npr.org/2023/07/22/1186540332/how-climate-change... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-28/treasury-s-yellen-says-extreme-weather-exposes-gaps-in-insurance-protection https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-28/treasury-... | https://archive.is/o2BiF https://archive.is/o2BiF https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/local-state/2023-04-04/florida-homeowners-to-face-a-projected-40-percent-increase-in-property-insurance-rates https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/local-state/2023-04-04/florida... https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/texas-home-insurance-prices-could-soon-become-the-highest-in-the-country/ https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/texas-home-insurance-pric... https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/homeowners-go-without-insurance-in-states-where-its-too-expensive-rcna88578 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/homeowners-go-with...

Hammershaft 3y ago

You should make a prediction market on manifold.markets or metaculus & commit to the bet. I think it would be an interesting market. https://www.metaculus.com/home/ https://www.metaculus.com/home/ https://manifold.markets/home https://manifold.markets/home

myshpa 3y ago

Or sea rise. Or droughts.

nocoiner 3y ago

I think I would take the other side of this bet. I do think that there will be at least one major U.S. urban area that is rendered permanently uninhabitable at some point this century, and the first one will be somewhere in southern Florida, but I don’t have any confidence in timing or specific local geographies. My prediction is that large-scale abandonment will be due to persistent flooding and inundation that can’t be solved with sea walls/gates or levees, and not a hurricane-induced flood or storm surge. I don’t think that will happen in the next 10 years, though it certainly could.