So technically the question asked is only if "the first independent replication attempt" will confirm (current guess 10%) and I think thats about right I can im

So technically the question asked is only if "the first independent replication attempt" will confirm (current guess 10%) and I think thats about right I can imagine there is a lot of 'build Twitter in a weekend' going on and it will take a while before the dust settles and there is a solid replication to base a solid conclusion.