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I think there is a ‘but for’ aspect, without google it’s reasonable to expect the some other search engine could have evolved into the same thing. Given the sc

I think there is a ‘but for’ aspect, without google it’s reasonable to expect the some other search engine could have evolved into the same thing. Given the scope and scale of the investment required to get Tesla and SpaceX to a viable state it seem that only a somewhat crazy person could would even attempt that. It’s difficult to find an optimum level of crazy, and is often difficult to distinguish between crazy and stupid. That said, I do think Elon would be even more successful if he was a bit less crazy and a bit less stupid.

bentlegen 3y ago
By that logic, why couldn’t someone have done the same with electric cars and rockets? Were we never going to go into space again? Did the Nissan Leaf not already exist?
- cjbgkagh 3y ago
  As I mentioned; they lacked the scale and scope required to be successful.
  - bentlegen 3y ago
    I disagree and here’s an example I would use. In the 20+ years Google has dominated search, who has come along and iterated a “better” version? Bing? Is the capital and scope required not approachable, as you suggest? Similarly, since Tesla helped demonstrate a valid market for electric cars, how many automakers have released competitive (and to some, better) EVs? If the capital requirements and scope were too large, where did Rivian and Polestar and numerous other upstarts come from? I won’t disagree re: SpaceX.
    - cjbgkagh 3y ago
      That is first movers advantage that gives rise to a network effect which acts as a powerful moat for a natural monopoly. Another search company could have been google without the need of a crazy person. Which is to say a google like company was probability inevitable, if not google then something like it.
      - bentlegen 3y ago
        Google was not the first search engine, nor the 6th.
        cjbgkagh 3y ago
        They were the first movers on a particular and very effective way of doing search.
    - kaba0 3y ago
      Re SpaceX: it had massive government funds going for it. So surely, no one else could do it, because they don’t have the funds to lobby for taxpayer money that hard. I still think we should have just given it to NASA, a private entity has no business in space.
- somedude895 3y ago
  Launching Google was a low stakes endeavour. Nobody was willing to put as much on the line as Musk did with SpaceX and Tesla. It's likely all of it would have happened at some point, but certainly not as quickly and effectively as it has thanks to Musk.

bentlegen 3y ago

By that logic, why couldn’t someone have done the same with electric cars and rockets? Were we never going to go into space again? Did the Nissan Leaf not already exist?

cjbgkagh 3y ago
As I mentioned; they lacked the scale and scope required to be successful.
- bentlegen 3y ago
  I disagree and here’s an example I would use. In the 20+ years Google has dominated search, who has come along and iterated a “better” version? Bing? Is the capital and scope required not approachable, as you suggest? Similarly, since Tesla helped demonstrate a valid market for electric cars, how many automakers have released competitive (and to some, better) EVs? If the capital requirements and scope were too large, where did Rivian and Polestar and numerous other upstarts come from? I won’t disagree re: SpaceX.
  - cjbgkagh 3y ago
    That is first movers advantage that gives rise to a network effect which acts as a powerful moat for a natural monopoly. Another search company could have been google without the need of a crazy person. Which is to say a google like company was probability inevitable, if not google then something like it.
    - bentlegen 3y ago
      Google was not the first search engine, nor the 6th.
      - cjbgkagh 3y ago
        They were the first movers on a particular and very effective way of doing search.
  - kaba0 3y ago
    Re SpaceX: it had massive government funds going for it. So surely, no one else could do it, because they don’t have the funds to lobby for taxpayer money that hard. I still think we should have just given it to NASA, a private entity has no business in space.
somedude895 3y ago
Launching Google was a low stakes endeavour. Nobody was willing to put as much on the line as Musk did with SpaceX and Tesla. It's likely all of it would have happened at some point, but certainly not as quickly and effectively as it has thanks to Musk.