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This. The time for nature and us humans to adapt to these new circumstances is vastly shorter than in any earlier age of the planet. edit: bryanlarsen pointed

This. The time for nature and us humans to adapt to these new circumstances is vastly shorter than in any earlier age of the planet. edit: bryanlarsen pointed out that there was an even more extreme event in earth's history.

bryanlarsen 3y ago
That's not quite true. 252 million years ago we also had a very quick 8 degree Celsius rise in global temperature. It kicked off the largest mass extinction event. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian%E2%80%93Triassic_extinction_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian%E2%80%93Triassic_extin...
- _aavaa_ 3y ago
  I don’t think that a mass extinction event is what people usually mean when they talk about nature adapting to the increase in temperature.
- myshpa 3y ago
  We're about to outpace that. "very quick" = 60 ± 48 thousand years, we're aiming for 100 years or so > It kicked off the largest mass extinction event Yet. Let's wait few decades. > It is also the largest known mass extinction of insects. We're already 75-80% down. https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-insect-population-flying-bugs-climate-change-pesticides-population-decline-2017-10 https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-insect-population-fl... https://www.worldwildlife.org/pages/living-planet-report-2022 https://www.worldwildlife.org/pages/living-planet-report-202... https://wwflpr.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/lpr_2022_full_report.pdf https://wwflpr.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/lpr_2022_full_r... There has been about 69 per cent decline in the wildlife population of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, fish across the globe in the last 50 years. The highest decline, 94 per cent was in Latin America and Caribbean region. According to WWF report, Africa recorded 66 percent fall in wildlife population, the Asia Pacific 55 percent and population of freshwater species reduced by 83 percent globally. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/brv.12816 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/brv.12816 The Sixth Mass Extinction: fact, fiction or speculation? "Estimate that, since around AD 1500, possibly as many as 7.5–13% (150,000–260,000) of all ~2 million known species have already gone extinct, orders of magnitude greater than the 882 (0.04%) on the Red List." https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22287498/meat-wildlife-biodiversity-species-plantbased https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22287498/meat-wildlife-bi... The way we eat could lead to habitat loss for 17,000 species by 2050 https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/our-global-food-system-primary-driver-biodiversity-loss https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/our-glob... Our global food system is the primary driver of biodiversity loss
  - zosima 3y ago
    We had a ~10C increase in temperature from 20000 YA - 13000 YA or so and then a yoyo jump back down ca. 6C and up again in a 1000 years, during the younger dryas. While the 19th-21th century increase of 1-1.2C or so is a bit faster, it's not a magnitude faster. Humans have definitely changed nature everywhere, and is probably responsible for many species dying. But blaming that on the climate change doesn't really make sense. Deforestation is much more likely to be the cause.
    - myshpa 3y ago
      I'm not blaming it on the climate change. I'm blaming overshoot. Mainly our agriculture (deforestation, biodiversity loss, pollution), misuse of fossil fuels and the structures of our societal and financial systems.
      - zosima 3y ago
        But deforestation and the following biodiversity loss is a completely different problem than reducing CO2. And in general, very few things that will reduce CO2 is going to help against deforestation (and contrary to popular opinion, even large scale reforestation will probably not affect CO2 very much either).
        myshpa 3y ago
        > very few things that will reduce CO2 is going to help against deforestation Reform of agriculture might be it. Agriculture is also the leading driver of deforestation (50% of pastures were forested in the past). > large scale reforestation will probably not affect CO2 very much either But it could, it's probably the best tool in our arsenal. And it would not only affect CO2, but many of our other problems too (droughts, biodiversity, warming ...). https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000010 https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal... Rapid global phaseout of animal agriculture has the potential to stabilize greenhouse gas levels for 30 years and offset 68 percent of CO2 emissions this century https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00603-4 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00603-4 Agricultural land use, particularly for animal feed, poses the biggest obstacle to ecosystem restoration and carbon sequestration, hindering climate efforts. The potential for carbon sequestration is vast, with enough capacity to meet the entire 1.5°C carbon budget. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/04/improving-farming-soil-carbon-store-global-heating-target https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/04/improvin... Improving soil could keep world within 1.5C heating target, research suggests. Better farming techniques across the world could lead to storage of 31 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide a year, data shows https://phys.org/news/2023-04-climate-crisis-biodiversity-approached.html https://phys.org/news/2023-04-climate-crisis-biodiversity-ap... The climate crisis and biodiversity crisis can't be approached separately, says study https://news.mongabay.com/2023/06/to-meet-u-n-climate-biodiversity-goals-79-of-plant-cover-must-be-saved-study/ https://news.mongabay.com/2023/06/to-meet-u-n-climate-biodiv... To meet U.N. climate, biodiversity goals, 79% of plant cover must be saved, study https://ourworldindata.org/drivers-of-deforestation https://ourworldindata.org/drivers-of-deforestation Every year the world loses around 5 million hectares of forest. 95% of this occurs in the tropics. At least three-quarters of this is driven by agriculture – clearing forests to grow crops (upto 80% for animal feed), and raise livestock https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets If the world adopted a plant-based diet we would reduce global agricultural land use from 4 to 1 billion hectares (and free up an area the size of Africa).
crypot 3y ago
You climate guys crack me up. 15 thousand years ago Canada was under 3 kilometers of ice. Now it is home to 40 million people and covered in wildlife. The human population went from 2 million to 8 billion during this warming period. All the evidence points to a warmer planet supporting more life, not less.
- anigbrowl 3y ago
  Now do Sudan
  - zosima 3y ago
    Sudan: current population 50.000.000 population in 1950: 6 191 000 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sudan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sudan I'd say they've been thriving.
    - anigbrowl 3y ago
      The comparison I replied to was over a 15000 year interval. Please do not muddy the waters like this, it's rude.
      - zosima 3y ago
        Well, if the earths population was 2 million, 15000 years ago and Sudan's today is 50 million, I think it's quite clear that Sudan's population has gone up quite a bit also over 15000 years.
        anigbrowl 3y ago
        Get lost sealion
- Aerbil313 3y ago
  > covered in wildlife You mean wildfire? Bad autocorrect. /s
- 3y ago
myshpa 3y ago
We are witnessing the sixth mass extinction event. Defined as the loss of 75% of species, this process typically spans around 2.8 million years. However, we're on track to reach this milestone in just about 100 years. https://www.worldwildlife.org/stories/what-is-the-sixth-mass-extinction-and-what-can-we-do-about-it https://www.worldwildlife.org/stories/what-is-the-sixth-mass...

bryanlarsen 3y ago

That's not quite true. 252 million years ago we also had a very quick 8 degree Celsius rise in global temperature. It kicked off the largest mass extinction event. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian%E2%80%93Triassic_extinction_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian%E2%80%93Triassic_extin...

_aavaa_ 3y ago
I don’t think that a mass extinction event is what people usually mean when they talk about nature adapting to the increase in temperature.
myshpa 3y ago
We're about to outpace that. "very quick" = 60 ± 48 thousand years, we're aiming for 100 years or so > It kicked off the largest mass extinction event Yet. Let's wait few decades. > It is also the largest known mass extinction of insects. We're already 75-80% down. https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-insect-population-flying-bugs-climate-change-pesticides-population-decline-2017-10 https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-insect-population-fl... https://www.worldwildlife.org/pages/living-planet-report-2022 https://www.worldwildlife.org/pages/living-planet-report-202... https://wwflpr.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/lpr_2022_full_report.pdf https://wwflpr.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/lpr_2022_full_r... There has been about 69 per cent decline in the wildlife population of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, fish across the globe in the last 50 years. The highest decline, 94 per cent was in Latin America and Caribbean region. According to WWF report, Africa recorded 66 percent fall in wildlife population, the Asia Pacific 55 percent and population of freshwater species reduced by 83 percent globally. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/brv.12816 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/brv.12816 The Sixth Mass Extinction: fact, fiction or speculation? "Estimate that, since around AD 1500, possibly as many as 7.5–13% (150,000–260,000) of all ~2 million known species have already gone extinct, orders of magnitude greater than the 882 (0.04%) on the Red List." https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22287498/meat-wildlife-biodiversity-species-plantbased https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22287498/meat-wildlife-bi... The way we eat could lead to habitat loss for 17,000 species by 2050 https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/our-global-food-system-primary-driver-biodiversity-loss https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/our-glob... Our global food system is the primary driver of biodiversity loss
- zosima 3y ago
  We had a ~10C increase in temperature from 20000 YA - 13000 YA or so and then a yoyo jump back down ca. 6C and up again in a 1000 years, during the younger dryas. While the 19th-21th century increase of 1-1.2C or so is a bit faster, it's not a magnitude faster. Humans have definitely changed nature everywhere, and is probably responsible for many species dying. But blaming that on the climate change doesn't really make sense. Deforestation is much more likely to be the cause.
  - myshpa 3y ago
    I'm not blaming it on the climate change. I'm blaming overshoot. Mainly our agriculture (deforestation, biodiversity loss, pollution), misuse of fossil fuels and the structures of our societal and financial systems.
    - zosima 3y ago
      But deforestation and the following biodiversity loss is a completely different problem than reducing CO2. And in general, very few things that will reduce CO2 is going to help against deforestation (and contrary to popular opinion, even large scale reforestation will probably not affect CO2 very much either).
      - myshpa 3y ago
        > very few things that will reduce CO2 is going to help against deforestation Reform of agriculture might be it. Agriculture is also the leading driver of deforestation (50% of pastures were forested in the past). > large scale reforestation will probably not affect CO2 very much either But it could, it's probably the best tool in our arsenal. And it would not only affect CO2, but many of our other problems too (droughts, biodiversity, warming ...). https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000010 https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal... Rapid global phaseout of animal agriculture has the potential to stabilize greenhouse gas levels for 30 years and offset 68 percent of CO2 emissions this century https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00603-4 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00603-4 Agricultural land use, particularly for animal feed, poses the biggest obstacle to ecosystem restoration and carbon sequestration, hindering climate efforts. The potential for carbon sequestration is vast, with enough capacity to meet the entire 1.5°C carbon budget. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/04/improving-farming-soil-carbon-store-global-heating-target https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/04/improvin... Improving soil could keep world within 1.5C heating target, research suggests. Better farming techniques across the world could lead to storage of 31 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide a year, data shows https://phys.org/news/2023-04-climate-crisis-biodiversity-approached.html https://phys.org/news/2023-04-climate-crisis-biodiversity-ap... The climate crisis and biodiversity crisis can't be approached separately, says study https://news.mongabay.com/2023/06/to-meet-u-n-climate-biodiversity-goals-79-of-plant-cover-must-be-saved-study/ https://news.mongabay.com/2023/06/to-meet-u-n-climate-biodiv... To meet U.N. climate, biodiversity goals, 79% of plant cover must be saved, study https://ourworldindata.org/drivers-of-deforestation https://ourworldindata.org/drivers-of-deforestation Every year the world loses around 5 million hectares of forest. 95% of this occurs in the tropics. At least three-quarters of this is driven by agriculture – clearing forests to grow crops (upto 80% for animal feed), and raise livestock https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets If the world adopted a plant-based diet we would reduce global agricultural land use from 4 to 1 billion hectares (and free up an area the size of Africa).

crypot 3y ago

You climate guys crack me up. 15 thousand years ago Canada was under 3 kilometers of ice. Now it is home to 40 million people and covered in wildlife. The human population went from 2 million to 8 billion during this warming period. All the evidence points to a warmer planet supporting more life, not less.

anigbrowl 3y ago
Now do Sudan
- zosima 3y ago
  Sudan: current population 50.000.000 population in 1950: 6 191 000 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sudan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sudan I'd say they've been thriving.
  - anigbrowl 3y ago
    The comparison I replied to was over a 15000 year interval. Please do not muddy the waters like this, it's rude.
    - zosima 3y ago
      Well, if the earths population was 2 million, 15000 years ago and Sudan's today is 50 million, I think it's quite clear that Sudan's population has gone up quite a bit also over 15000 years.
      - anigbrowl 3y ago
        Get lost sealion
Aerbil313 3y ago
> covered in wildlife You mean wildfire? Bad autocorrect. /s
3y ago

myshpa 3y ago

We are witnessing the sixth mass extinction event. Defined as the loss of 75% of species, this process typically spans around 2.8 million years. However, we're on track to reach this milestone in just about 100 years. https://www.worldwildlife.org/stories/what-is-the-sixth-mass-extinction-and-what-can-we-do-about-it https://www.worldwildlife.org/stories/what-is-the-sixth-mass...