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> Groups that have a reproduction number less than 1 (same as TFR<2) will die out. But will they really? Fertility rates are hard to predict and I feel like at
by somedude895 3y ago
> Groups that have a reproduction number less than 1 (same as TFR<2) will die out.
But will they really? Fertility rates are hard to predict and I feel like at a certain point a society might deurbanize with people moving to the countryside and have more children again. Maybe it's at 100 million, maybe at 10 million population, but I just can't fathom a 100 million society just going to zero or even the hundreds of thousands. Maybe I don't understand the dynamics.
- Ygg2 3y ago> society might deurbanize with people moving to the countryside and have more children again. That's not what is happening. Ask yourself is it more likely a young girl is going to the city or to the countryside? Once you run out of fertile females your fertility rate is 0.
- somedude895 3y ago> Ask yourself is it more likely a young girl is going to the city or to the countryside? At this point that is quite unlikely but still >0. But I also think the argument is quite myopic. There's a definite mental health crisis among young people and especially women, which could possibly be attributed to the lack of purpose that is a consequence of modern life, so a countermovement in at least part of a population is not unthinkable. And that's just one possible thing that could trigger such a shift.