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>"The vast majority of accidents are due to human error." Obviously, as there is very little alternative to human error right now. But there's no reason to be

>"The vast majority of accidents are due to human error." Obviously, as there is very little alternative to human error right now. But there's no reason to believe that to be the case when you introduce autonomous vehicles. There's a whole new variable. Still, a required step for progress.

anigbrowl 15y ago
very little alternative Manufacturing defects, eg faulty brakes.
- protomyth 15y ago
  Having the car make driving decisions is a different realm than manufacturing defects. We have seen some software problems with various cars already, and as the software gets more complex, I would expect to see that magnified. Look at the aerospace industry for examples (e.g. F-22, Airbus).
  - quandrum 15y ago
    > We have seen some software problems with various cars already Have we? The highest profile one I know of turned out to not be be software at all (Referring to Toyota accelerator[1]), but rather a combination of floor mats and human error. [1] http://www.nhtsa.gov/PR/DOT-16-11 http://www.nhtsa.gov/PR/DOT-16-11
    - protomyth 15y ago
      The Civic Hybrid is one example (actually the base model Civic needed a firmware upgrade). Auto manufactures do not produce error free software, and there are a lot more cars than planes.
kennystone 15y ago
Manufacturing defects, bad roads, poor signage - Government has optimized these pretty well.
- burgerbrain 15y ago
  Weather conditions as well. Black ice is one hell of a thing.
  - MaxGabriel 15y ago
    An interesting note from Sebastian Thrun--I think in the second office hours of his CS373 course--Google's self driving car can't currently drive in snow because it covers up the road, and the sensors can't see the lines on the road (but they can adjust for the rain).
- drats 15y ago
  With roads and poor signage the citizens tend to "optimize" the Government (vote them out) if they fail to do a reasonable job on those issues given how much tax they swallow up on them. And with manufacturing defects the common law provides remedies and puts the worst offenders out of business (along with a free press providing consumer reviews for the milder cases). I'm not some foaming at the mouth libertarian but let's not pretend Government is the one that's responsible for common sense things (just look at the efforts Ford went through to get people to wear seatbelts, or SAAB's safety obsession that arguably put them out of business). If you still don't believe me go compare the "optimization" of your local DMV and the Google labs where these autonomous cars are being created and see if you walk aways with any illusions of Government grandeur.
vibrunazo 15y ago
> But there's no reason to believe that to be the case when you introduce autonomous vehicles. Care to expand why do you think that? I think there are many reasons to believe human errors will still be the majority cause of accidents after some cars are autonomous. The main, and most touted reason, is that driving is one of the types of tasks computers are much better suited to than human beings. Driving well is, mostly, just following a few clear repetitive rules over and over. We still fail at that very often, but computers excel at following clear rules repetitively. So there are many reasons to believe computers will outperform humans at driving. And, in my opinion, by a large margin. I'm intrigued to know why you wouldn't think so.

anigbrowl 15y ago

very little alternative Manufacturing defects, eg faulty brakes.

protomyth 15y ago
Having the car make driving decisions is a different realm than manufacturing defects. We have seen some software problems with various cars already, and as the software gets more complex, I would expect to see that magnified. Look at the aerospace industry for examples (e.g. F-22, Airbus).
- quandrum 15y ago
  > We have seen some software problems with various cars already Have we? The highest profile one I know of turned out to not be be software at all (Referring to Toyota accelerator[1]), but rather a combination of floor mats and human error. [1] http://www.nhtsa.gov/PR/DOT-16-11 http://www.nhtsa.gov/PR/DOT-16-11
  - protomyth 15y ago
    The Civic Hybrid is one example (actually the base model Civic needed a firmware upgrade). Auto manufactures do not produce error free software, and there are a lot more cars than planes.

kennystone 15y ago

Manufacturing defects, bad roads, poor signage - Government has optimized these pretty well.

burgerbrain 15y ago
Weather conditions as well. Black ice is one hell of a thing.
- MaxGabriel 15y ago
  An interesting note from Sebastian Thrun--I think in the second office hours of his CS373 course--Google's self driving car can't currently drive in snow because it covers up the road, and the sensors can't see the lines on the road (but they can adjust for the rain).
drats 15y ago
With roads and poor signage the citizens tend to "optimize" the Government (vote them out) if they fail to do a reasonable job on those issues given how much tax they swallow up on them. And with manufacturing defects the common law provides remedies and puts the worst offenders out of business (along with a free press providing consumer reviews for the milder cases). I'm not some foaming at the mouth libertarian but let's not pretend Government is the one that's responsible for common sense things (just look at the efforts Ford went through to get people to wear seatbelts, or SAAB's safety obsession that arguably put them out of business). If you still don't believe me go compare the "optimization" of your local DMV and the Google labs where these autonomous cars are being created and see if you walk aways with any illusions of Government grandeur.

vibrunazo 15y ago

> But there's no reason to believe that to be the case when you introduce autonomous vehicles. Care to expand why do you think that? I think there are many reasons to believe human errors will still be the majority cause of accidents after some cars are autonomous. The main, and most touted reason, is that driving is one of the types of tasks computers are much better suited to than human beings. Driving well is, mostly, just following a few clear repetitive rules over and over. We still fail at that very often, but computers excel at following clear rules repetitively. So there are many reasons to believe computers will outperform humans at driving. And, in my opinion, by a large margin. I'm intrigued to know why you wouldn't think so.