I think you meant to link here: https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-l

I think you meant to link here: https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-... The one you linked is about retraction, not replication. Interestingly, they're both near 25%, which seems kinda contradictory. The retraction one has a deadline of Jan 1, 2024, but the replication one is Jan 1, 2025. There's also this other retraction one with a later deadline of Jan 1, 2025: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-first-roomtemperature-ambi-61c98e502e09 https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-first-roomtemperature... So the market leans toward the idea that it won't be replicated, and it will be retracted in 2024 (or in 2023 but less likely).