4 ms·

The point is you cannot know which days are the worst days ahead of time. Also uncited and unpublished papers aren’t worth the ink they’re printed on.

by Zetice 3y ago

fantasticshower 3y ago
If you're open-minded, give the paper a read. They suggest a method, that you can verify yourself, for figuring out which months are likely to be worse. The paper you shared defines "in the market" as long equities and "out of the market" as long T-bills. The paper I linked looks at other assets you could rotate into besides T-bills. How could that one change (they offer several other ideas) impact the results of your paper? If that's not interesting to you, skip the paper I linked. Personally, I believe that type of research is still valuable. I don't structure my life just based on things in published and cited articles.
- Zetice 3y ago
  As with literally everything else of this nature, it's overfit for the past, and in future applications inevitably fails. This isn't about interest, it's about value. What you're proposing is flat out wrong, and has been shown to be so in hundreds of different ways.
fantasticshower 3y ago
You may just ignore this (dear thread-reader may not!) since it's on a blog but how do you fit this into your mental model of market phenomena? https://allocatesmartly.com/diving-deeper-does-the-day-of-the-month-matter/ https://allocatesmartly.com/diving-deeper-does-the-day-of-th...
- Zetice 3y ago
  If you can't smell the salesmanship taking place on this link, there is a whole lot more wrong with your filtering abilities than I had initially thought. So based on this, I think you have a filter problem; you seem to be unable to accurately evaluate sources for their credibility, and take in any/all arguments without understanding how easy it is to be manipulated by un-credible sources into believing hard-to-disprove ideas that are nonetheless actively harmful to you and your ability to grow your investments. This leaves you susceptible to charlatans and snake-oil salespeople, which fully explains your desire to believe proven-wrong ideas on investing. When you lose out on these market timing attempts, you apparently do so in a way that allows others to profit directly off of you, and you further advocate for others to follow suit. You're a great mark, I'll give you that.
  - fantasticshower 3y ago
    We certainly have different types of filters. Your filter apparently catches blogs and that's fine. I feel I've been exposed to many interesting things on blogs. I'm sure others would agree. Your model/filter may be better because you don't have to think about as many things. There's certainly more information out there than one has the ability to ingest. In my experience many things I thought were settled turned out not to be upon further inspection. A simple filter might be good enough for your purposes! I think your ideas about investing can be correct (in that they produce favorable outcomes) and other ideas can be correct too. Not a perfect analogy, but Newton's ideas about gravity are correct to explain a lot of things. Einstein's ideas expand and explain more. They are both correct, depending on the level of detail you need. Sometimes "correct" roughly equals "useful".
    - Zetice 3y ago
      I didn’t filter your link because it was a blog, I filtered it because it was an obvious pitch for a product the authors sell. Do you really not understand the issues there? Incredible.
      - fantasticshower 3y ago
        It's a logical fallacy to assume what they are saying is false because they might stand to profit from it. They might be biased but can't we investigate their claims independently?
        Zetice 3y ago
        No, you can’t investigate their claims, as you are not a domain expert. They rely on you trying, however. And it is not a logical fallacy to disregard their argument entirely. I didn’t say they were wrong, I said they weren’t credible.
        fantasticshower 3y ago
        I guess we'll have to disagree about whether I'm capable of investigating their claims. Maybe you aren't and that's well and good for you. If you cannot investigate their claims, I don't think there's much more to discuss on this topic. Thanks for the lively discussion, Zetice!

The point is you cannot know which days are the worst days ahead of time. Also uncited and unpublished papers aren’t worth the ink they’re printed on.

by Zetice 3y ago

The point is you cannot know which days are the worst days ahead of time. Also uncited and unpublished papers aren’t worth the ink they’re printed on.

fantasticshower 3y ago

If you're open-minded, give the paper a read. They suggest a method, that you can verify yourself, for figuring out which months are likely to be worse. The paper you shared defines "in the market" as long equities and "out of the market" as long T-bills. The paper I linked looks at other assets you could rotate into besides T-bills. How could that one change (they offer several other ideas) impact the results of your paper? If that's not interesting to you, skip the paper I linked. Personally, I believe that type of research is still valuable. I don't structure my life just based on things in published and cited articles.

Zetice 3y ago
As with literally everything else of this nature, it's overfit for the past, and in future applications inevitably fails. This isn't about interest, it's about value. What you're proposing is flat out wrong, and has been shown to be so in hundreds of different ways.

fantasticshower 3y ago

You may just ignore this (dear thread-reader may not!) since it's on a blog but how do you fit this into your mental model of market phenomena? https://allocatesmartly.com/diving-deeper-does-the-day-of-the-month-matter/ https://allocatesmartly.com/diving-deeper-does-the-day-of-th...

Zetice 3y ago
If you can't smell the salesmanship taking place on this link, there is a whole lot more wrong with your filtering abilities than I had initially thought. So based on this, I think you have a filter problem; you seem to be unable to accurately evaluate sources for their credibility, and take in any/all arguments without understanding how easy it is to be manipulated by un-credible sources into believing hard-to-disprove ideas that are nonetheless actively harmful to you and your ability to grow your investments. This leaves you susceptible to charlatans and snake-oil salespeople, which fully explains your desire to believe proven-wrong ideas on investing. When you lose out on these market timing attempts, you apparently do so in a way that allows others to profit directly off of you, and you further advocate for others to follow suit. You're a great mark, I'll give you that.
- fantasticshower 3y ago
  We certainly have different types of filters. Your filter apparently catches blogs and that's fine. I feel I've been exposed to many interesting things on blogs. I'm sure others would agree. Your model/filter may be better because you don't have to think about as many things. There's certainly more information out there than one has the ability to ingest. In my experience many things I thought were settled turned out not to be upon further inspection. A simple filter might be good enough for your purposes! I think your ideas about investing can be correct (in that they produce favorable outcomes) and other ideas can be correct too. Not a perfect analogy, but Newton's ideas about gravity are correct to explain a lot of things. Einstein's ideas expand and explain more. They are both correct, depending on the level of detail you need. Sometimes "correct" roughly equals "useful".
  - Zetice 3y ago
    I didn’t filter your link because it was a blog, I filtered it because it was an obvious pitch for a product the authors sell. Do you really not understand the issues there? Incredible.
    - fantasticshower 3y ago
      It's a logical fallacy to assume what they are saying is false because they might stand to profit from it. They might be biased but can't we investigate their claims independently?
      - Zetice 3y ago
        No, you can’t investigate their claims, as you are not a domain expert. They rely on you trying, however. And it is not a logical fallacy to disregard their argument entirely. I didn’t say they were wrong, I said they weren’t credible.
        fantasticshower 3y ago
        I guess we'll have to disagree about whether I'm capable of investigating their claims. Maybe you aren't and that's well and good for you. If you cannot investigate their claims, I don't think there's much more to discuss on this topic. Thanks for the lively discussion, Zetice!