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If you are curious what the betting markets think, Manifold Markets is hovering around 30% with 225 traders that it is replicated before 2025. https://manifol

If you are curious what the betting markets think, Manifold Markets is hovering around 30% with 225 traders that it is replicated before 2025. https://manifold.markets/Mira/will-the-first-roomtemperature-ambi?r=RGF2aWRDaGVl https://manifold.markets/Mira/will-the-first-roomtemperature... There's a few more similar questions on their news dashboard: https://manifold.markets/home?tab=superconductor%3F https://manifold.markets/home?tab=superconductor%3F

adrianmonk 3y ago
I think you meant to link here: https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-... The one you linked is about retraction, not replication. Interestingly, they're both near 25%, which seems kinda contradictory. The retraction one has a deadline of Jan 1, 2024, but the replication one is Jan 1, 2025. There's also this other retraction one with a later deadline of Jan 1, 2025: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-first-roomtemperature-ambi-61c98e502e09 https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-first-roomtemperature... So the market leans toward the idea that it won't be replicated, and it will be retracted in 2024 (or in 2023 but less likely).