It’s assuming the 1% of smokers who are recipients are evenly distributed (statistically speaking) across the smoking population. A quite reasonable assumption.

It’s assuming the 1% of smokers who are recipients are evenly distributed (statistically speaking) across the smoking population. A quite reasonable assumption. Therefore, to generally reduce the population of recipients you’d have to reduce the population of smokers. Unless you have data showing a specific population skew or sampling issue I’d say it is perfectly good math, albeit with an assumption. Now, of course, you could simply deny service to 1% of smokers who would be recipients—or other extremely skewed sampling attacks—but that is somewhat unlikely and in most cases directly against the goals of the program.