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All models are wrong, some models are useful. The goal of technical analysis is to find pools of supply and demand at different price points, much like a clust
by jjoonathan 3y ago
All models are wrong, some models are useful.
The goal of technical analysis is to find pools of supply and demand at different price points, much like a clustering algorithm. It is reductive by its very nature but it's still a useful approximation because big interpretable clusters can absolutely drive price action and it's helpful to have a model for that. On a good day, you might get the biggest 2 or 3 clusters correct to within 10% and miss several others totaling 1000000x the size and importance of a hypothetical bozo trading based on a coin flip, and this highly imperfect outcome would still be enormously valuable and worth pursuing.
It's like politicians assembling a platform by considering the sizes and interests of voting blocs. This strategy was always going to be a reductive, imperfect, noisy mess but that doesn't make it irrational or useless.