14 ms·

Based on my initial reading so far this seems like the best take. However, I’ll offer an alternative perspective. This paper identifies that IPCC does not exp

Based on my initial reading so far this seems like the best take. However, I’ll offer an alternative perspective. This paper identifies that IPCC does not expect a collapse in the 21st-century. That alone should be our largest biasing factor when we’re asking - from a time horizon perspective - what should we be doing? So then, why now? I think it’s compelling that they identified two preconditions for a collapse they have been monitoring, and now are indicating that we are on the trajectory towards collapse, given what we were looking for for indications and warning. As a former military officer, the key thing that you get from intelligence is long-term forecasting and indications and warnings for negative or dangerous actions by your adversaries and risk-taking by your allies. So following that same logic, then if two of the largest indications and warnings for a future energy transfer collapse/flip scenario, based on the best modeling we have today, are indicating that we are on that trajectory, then it seems appropriate for the most well respected journal to relay that fact.

mistermann 3y ago
As a former military officer, does it concern you at all that in this case if the time comes that we must mobilize, like yesterday, instead of issuing orders and having them followed, we may have a 4 to 12 year lag as the orders filter through our "democracy", which is composed largely of a bunch of children arguing over their respective fantasy land realities (as illustrated among our best and brightest here every time the topic comes up)? I feel like "a chain is only as strong as its weakest link" is in play here in a very big way.
- AndrewKemendo 3y ago
  At least in the US the military works at the speed of congressional appropriations. If Congress and the President agree to what you consider a “4-6 year lag” in whatever response we take then, the best Service and COCOM chiefs can do is give advice and then execute orders. Call and vote for your congressperson if you want lasting change in the use of the DoD.
  - mistermann 3y ago
    What if our democracy is the weakest link in the chain and as it is guarantees failure? Does the fact that for some reason most humans literally cannot even contemplate this idea not seem like a bit of a risky situation to ignore, while representing/perceiving that we are thinking rationally?? To me, this is a recipe for disaster, the blind leading the blind.

mistermann 3y ago

As a former military officer, does it concern you at all that in this case if the time comes that we must mobilize, like yesterday, instead of issuing orders and having them followed, we may have a 4 to 12 year lag as the orders filter through our "democracy", which is composed largely of a bunch of children arguing over their respective fantasy land realities (as illustrated among our best and brightest here every time the topic comes up)? I feel like "a chain is only as strong as its weakest link" is in play here in a very big way.

AndrewKemendo 3y ago
At least in the US the military works at the speed of congressional appropriations. If Congress and the President agree to what you consider a “4-6 year lag” in whatever response we take then, the best Service and COCOM chiefs can do is give advice and then execute orders. Call and vote for your congressperson if you want lasting change in the use of the DoD.
- mistermann 3y ago
  What if our democracy is the weakest link in the chain and as it is guarantees failure? Does the fact that for some reason most humans literally cannot even contemplate this idea not seem like a bit of a risky situation to ignore, while representing/perceiving that we are thinking rationally?? To me, this is a recipe for disaster, the blind leading the blind.