The timeline isn't clear to me, but another aspect is that new data became available over time. I'd expect far more speculative comments early in the pandemic c

The timeline isn't clear to me, but another aspect is that new data became available over time. I'd expect far more speculative comments early in the pandemic compared to later. Another factor that tends to trigger a lot of cynicism and suspicion is the general behaviour of autocratic states like China in such cases. Their behaviour certainly made the investigation harder and removed potential evidence, but we have no idea whether that was because they tried to actually cover up something or just because it's what they always do. They might not even wait until they know anything and just control the information by default and suppress investigations.