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Doing that is not technical analysis. Technical analysis is predicting stock prices strictly from the previous price history. The steel-man position for techni
by Tuna-Fish 3y ago
Doing that is not technical analysis. Technical analysis is predicting stock prices strictly from the previous price history.
The steel-man position for technical analysis is that humans are herd animals, who tend to do things in similar, predictable ways. Such as, people who pick stocks like to sell and take profits after the stock reaches some nice, round number. When enough people do this, it can result in repeatable, predictable patterns in prices.
The massive caveat there is of course that while that might be true in the absence of outside stimuli, any news always trumps that. It doesn't matter how nice your patterns are, if it comes out that the company somehow did worse than expected, it's price is going to fall, and if it did better than expected, it's going to rise. Trading on technicals might be something that works if you are really fucking careful, but it seems to me like you are picking quarters in front of a steamroller, in a way. The actual reliable profits from technical analysis are always going to be small, and the risks of investing with no understanding of the fundamentals seems fraught.
- kenjackson 3y ago> Technical analysis is predicting stock prices strictly from the previous price history. Is this true? For example, is using AI models that take into price history, current and historical events, insider and/or institutional trading, analyst opinions -- would that not be considered technical analysis? I know this is just a matter of semantics, but curious as to what is considered TA nowadays.
- AnotherGoodName 3y agoNot really. When you add that much information that gets into 'analysis' rather than 'technical analysis'. A bit like medicine vs traditional medicine. Technical analysis is specifically the stupid line drawings you see on stock charts that try to predict trend lines from the motion of the previous lines
- kenjackson 3y agoThat's helpful. OK, I'm in the "it's closer to astrology" camp then.