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> It's not going to take off. It already did: https://fedidb.org/software/lemmy https://fedidb.org/software/lemmy It will be a slow descent for reddit, but if

> It's not going to take off. It already did: https://fedidb.org/software/lemmy https://fedidb.org/software/lemmy It will be a slow descent for reddit, but if you take the "rule" of social media that splits content creators/active participants/lurkers as 1/9/90%, and if we assume that a substantial amount of the 1% is moving away from reddit, then it stands to reason that the other 99% will end up following the creators. Yeah, network effects are still at play, but there is already a critical mass of people on Lemmy that want it to work. I find myself posting a lot more than I ever did on reddit (or even here) because I look at it as tending a garden.

shagie 3y ago
> It will be a slow descent for reddit, but if you take the "rule" of social media that splits content creators/active participants/lurkers as 1/9/90%, and if we assume that a substantial amount of the 1% is moving away from reddit, then it stands to reason that the other 99% will end up following the creators. In the domains of programming, suggesting that many of the 1% have moved away from Reddit, that is extremely optimistic... though that may be my visibility into fragmentation of communities across Lemmy. https://lemmy.ml/c/java https://programming.dev/c/java From what I've seen, the content that has taken off on Lemmy tends to be the lower effort "ask Lemmy", memes, and similar. Instances on beehaw tend to be more thriving, but this may also be a function of more active moderation... which is one of those things that people rail about being unfair and Stack Overflow over moderates (that's another thread). The people who left Reddit appear to mostly be moderators who have gotten tired of moderating rather than people who are creating content / posts / commenting on Reddit. https://programming.dev/c/cs_career_questions 290 subscribers, most recent question was 8 days ago. https://www.reddit.com/r/cscareerquestions/ 1M subscribers (yes, bots, inactive and all), 25th oldest question was 9 hours ago. There was a surge a few weeks ago (especially as people hit private subs) - but it hasn't been sustained.
- rglullis 3y ago
  > but it hasn't been sustained. https://fedidb.org https://fedidb.org disagrees with you. Numbers are still going up, quite strongly.
  - shagie 3y ago
    In the context of Lemmy: https://fedidb.org/software/Lemmy https://fedidb.org/software/Lemmy User count from a year ago is 30k to 48k. Post count is from 181k to 241k The content on the site is memes and jokes with occasional world news. https://lemmy.ml/?dataType=Post&listingType=Local&page=1&sort=Active https://lemmy.world/?dataType=Post&listingType=Local&page=1&sort=Active I don't see this as sustained growth. Mastodon is doing quite well. Lemmy... not so much.
    - rglullis 3y ago
      Are we looking at the same data? For Lemmy, I see: TOTAL USERS: 405,020 MONTHLY ACTIVE USERS: 69,825 ACTIVE SERVERS: 1,175 TOTAL POSTS: 1,558,916 > The content on the site is memes and jokes with occasional world news. So is reddit. And you are forgetting adult content.
      - shagie 3y ago
        Adult content is the third most active Lemmy instance. https://fedidb.org/software/Lemmy https://fedidb.org/software/Lemmy I am not sure that one would claim that content creators are there rather than people copying content from various porn and making it accessible. Do the graphs on that page suggest a substantial increase in the rate of content being submitted to Lemmy instances in the past year? Memes and jokes are fine... if that's what you are after. I'll note that my /r/all page is devoid of most of them as the reddit subs that I'm on tend to not be as meme saturated. If you are after deeper discussions of programming topics or hobbies, Lemmy doesn't seem to show the sustained growth or content being added that provides for interesting reading. https://startrek.website https://startrek.website is probably the exception to this as they've maintained a rather focused set of communities and so it is easier to find content that isn't memes. I haven't been able to find an equivalent of /r/DIY, /r/boardgames, /r/soloboardgaming, /r/books, /r/factorio (and its set of subs) on Lemmy. If one wants to claim that the content creators of /r/memes have mostly left and gone to Lemmy... ok. I'm not as familiar with that subculture. If you want to say that the content creators of /r/books have left and gone to Lemmy - I have seen no indication of that happening.
PurpleRamen 3y ago
69,828 Monthly Active Users is not what I would call a take off of something which will conquer the world, beat the capital and liberate the world from the evil of their control. It just this years hyped nerdspace. For example, it seems even significant smaller than this space here.
- shagie 3y ago
  HN stats a decade ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9219581 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9219581 > Roughly 2.6M views a day, 300K daily uniques, 3 to 3.5M monthly uniques. It depends on how you count, of course. It would be curious to see how this compares to 2023... but I doubt you'd see an order of magnitude change in either direction. Some 2021 stats (not from dang though) https://whaly.io/posts/hacker-news-2021-retrospective https://whaly.io/posts/hacker-news-2021-retrospective

shagie 3y ago

> It will be a slow descent for reddit, but if you take the "rule" of social media that splits content creators/active participants/lurkers as 1/9/90%, and if we assume that a substantial amount of the 1% is moving away from reddit, then it stands to reason that the other 99% will end up following the creators. In the domains of programming, suggesting that many of the 1% have moved away from Reddit, that is extremely optimistic... though that may be my visibility into fragmentation of communities across Lemmy. https://lemmy.ml/c/java https://programming.dev/c/java From what I've seen, the content that has taken off on Lemmy tends to be the lower effort "ask Lemmy", memes, and similar. Instances on beehaw tend to be more thriving, but this may also be a function of more active moderation... which is one of those things that people rail about being unfair and Stack Overflow over moderates (that's another thread). The people who left Reddit appear to mostly be moderators who have gotten tired of moderating rather than people who are creating content / posts / commenting on Reddit. https://programming.dev/c/cs_career_questions 290 subscribers, most recent question was 8 days ago. https://www.reddit.com/r/cscareerquestions/ 1M subscribers (yes, bots, inactive and all), 25th oldest question was 9 hours ago. There was a surge a few weeks ago (especially as people hit private subs) - but it hasn't been sustained.

rglullis 3y ago
> but it hasn't been sustained. https://fedidb.org https://fedidb.org disagrees with you. Numbers are still going up, quite strongly.
- shagie 3y ago
  In the context of Lemmy: https://fedidb.org/software/Lemmy https://fedidb.org/software/Lemmy User count from a year ago is 30k to 48k. Post count is from 181k to 241k The content on the site is memes and jokes with occasional world news. https://lemmy.ml/?dataType=Post&listingType=Local&page=1&sort=Active https://lemmy.world/?dataType=Post&listingType=Local&page=1&sort=Active I don't see this as sustained growth. Mastodon is doing quite well. Lemmy... not so much.
  - rglullis 3y ago
    Are we looking at the same data? For Lemmy, I see: TOTAL USERS: 405,020 MONTHLY ACTIVE USERS: 69,825 ACTIVE SERVERS: 1,175 TOTAL POSTS: 1,558,916 > The content on the site is memes and jokes with occasional world news. So is reddit. And you are forgetting adult content.
    - shagie 3y ago
      Adult content is the third most active Lemmy instance. https://fedidb.org/software/Lemmy https://fedidb.org/software/Lemmy I am not sure that one would claim that content creators are there rather than people copying content from various porn and making it accessible. Do the graphs on that page suggest a substantial increase in the rate of content being submitted to Lemmy instances in the past year? Memes and jokes are fine... if that's what you are after. I'll note that my /r/all page is devoid of most of them as the reddit subs that I'm on tend to not be as meme saturated. If you are after deeper discussions of programming topics or hobbies, Lemmy doesn't seem to show the sustained growth or content being added that provides for interesting reading. https://startrek.website https://startrek.website is probably the exception to this as they've maintained a rather focused set of communities and so it is easier to find content that isn't memes. I haven't been able to find an equivalent of /r/DIY, /r/boardgames, /r/soloboardgaming, /r/books, /r/factorio (and its set of subs) on Lemmy. If one wants to claim that the content creators of /r/memes have mostly left and gone to Lemmy... ok. I'm not as familiar with that subculture. If you want to say that the content creators of /r/books have left and gone to Lemmy - I have seen no indication of that happening.

PurpleRamen 3y ago

69,828 Monthly Active Users is not what I would call a take off of something which will conquer the world, beat the capital and liberate the world from the evil of their control. It just this years hyped nerdspace. For example, it seems even significant smaller than this space here.

shagie 3y ago
HN stats a decade ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9219581 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9219581 > Roughly 2.6M views a day, 300K daily uniques, 3 to 3.5M monthly uniques. It depends on how you count, of course. It would be curious to see how this compares to 2023... but I doubt you'd see an order of magnitude change in either direction. Some 2021 stats (not from dang though) https://whaly.io/posts/hacker-news-2021-retrospective https://whaly.io/posts/hacker-news-2021-retrospective