Yeah quite a few FIRE tools which allow you to model retirement scenarios will let you pre-fill return rates based on historic returns. This one is pretty nice

Yeah quite a few FIRE tools which allow you to model retirement scenarios will let you pre-fill return rates based on historic returns. This one is pretty nice to mimic. You have to Ctrl+F for 'projection method' and then switch it to Historic Cycles, or Monte Carlo Simulation: https://engaging-data.com/fire-calculator/ https://engaging-data.com/fire-calculator/ Then you'll see basically a distribution appear on the graph with the median (50%), but also the 25% & 75%, and the 10% & 90% likely return scenarios. Quite useful to see what a bottom 10% ('worst-case') scenario would look like, and how it would affect your finances and your timelines.