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> 1) Why do you feel it is bigger than the phone market? I only use my phone for calls, messages (SMS/email), maps and occasionally for Web usage. That's 95% o

by cletus 15y ago

> 1) Why do you feel it is bigger than the phone market? I only use my phone for calls, messages (SMS/email), maps and occasionally for Web usage. That's 95% of my phone usage at least. I don't believe my experience is atypical. The phone is ultimately a communication device (and, these days, a camera). IMHO it's reasonably likely we're heading for a point where the phone will be replaced by a (largely if not completely) nonvisual communication device. Maybe the whole glasses thing will happen (although I'm skeptical that any electronic display can match the latency required to interpose imagery over what you're looking at, which is a problem for augmented reality in general). Look at it another way: how much do you use your phone versus a tablet (assuming you have one)? For me, it's a factor of 10-20x in favour of the tablet. I know other people vary on this. Some spend all day sending and reading messages. A few even spend all their time on Facebook (or even Twitter) on their phones. Basically, I just believe tablets will be bigger because rather than being hybrid communication devices like phones they'll encroach on general computing. I use a tablet for Web browsing, email, books, games, Netflix and photos. I have a Macbook Air. I use it a lot too but if I'm just reading/browsing/consuming, I'll use the iPad in preference to any other device. And that covers a lot of my technology use. > 2) How much evidence is there for large-scale cannibalization? There is some evidence [1] but the trend (if it is that) is, at best, emergent. > 3) Strongly disagree that apps are more important on a tablet than a phone. Native apps are vastly superior on the iPad to Web apps too. Low power is an issue for tablets too. People use them on sofas, on buses/trains/planes, etc. Battery life matters. The battery life of an iPad dwarfs that of pretty much any other laptop. Compare native apps to the ghastly hybrid native/Web apps that some put out there (that are essentially a UIWebView with HTML/JS/CSS). They have all been in my experience terrible. [1]: http://betanews.com/2011/01/12/it-s-official-ipad-sapped-windows-pc-shipments-during-q4-2010-but-macs-more/ http://betanews.com/2011/01/12/it-s-official-ipad-sapped-win...

usaar333 15y ago
> Look at it another way: how much do you use your phone versus a tablet (assuming you have one)? > If I'm just reading/browsing/consuming, I'll use the iPad in preference to any other device. To each their own. I don't own a tablet, but used my roommates iPad for a few weeks to see what all the fuss was about. I constantly longed for my laptop, which was far more comfortable to use, faster (in terms of web navigation), larger screen space, etc. Sure I use a phone less than a laptop, but I absolutely need both.
MattRogish 15y ago
I think I tend to agree. I have an iPhone, MacBook Air, and iPad. My use of each is vastly different - the Venn diagrams hardly overlap. My phone is primarily used for light-duty consumption of text content (email reading, twitter, etc.) and gaming when I'm bored (waiting rooms, transit, etc.). And, of course, voice communication. Web browsing, reading eBooks, etc. is quite difficult on the small screen, retina-display notwithstanding. I always have my phone with me. The iPad tends much more to web browsing, sending email (it's difficult to send an email of any length on a phone, much easier on the iPad), playing games, etc. I have it sitting next to my couch and when watching a "live" TV show (you know, the things with commercials) I'll absent-mindedly pick up the iPad and thumb through Tweets or HN or Reddit etc. The battery life on the iPad is considerably better than my phone - so when I go on long trips I'll use the iPad as my time-killer. My iPad is within reach 100% of the time at home, and 100% of my time on vacation and long trips. My MBA is used for hard-core web browsing (researching lots of data, figuring out problems = e.g. lots of task switching), programming, writing papers (the physical keyboard can't be beaten; I don't own a bluetooth keyboard so don't know if I'd write on the iPad), etc. I work on my laptop, but in general it stays put (strange, eh?). However, I may take it on short or long term trips if I know that I will be doing any work or needing the power and flexibility of a "real" computer over the iOS devices. This is becoming more infrequent, however. In short: iPhone: Portable gaming device and light-duty text consumption. With me 100% of the time. iPad: Web browsing, gaming, and video player. With me 100% of the time at home and long trips/vacations MBA: Hard-core computer-y stuff that you can't do on tablets or phones (or just too painful to do). Rarely travels with me on vacation and long trips. Apple has done a perfect job positioning all three devices right in the sweet spot of what I want to do. They own each of these scenarios. This is why I firmly believe that Apple will never produce a smaller iPad or a larger iPhone - it doesn't create a "new" space that isn't already overlapped with the iPhone or iPad, and in the weird not-quite-phone, not-quite-tablet space it inherits the weaknesses of both. In order to see a smaller iPad or bigger iPhone, Apple would have to carve out a distinct space in the market that isn't better served by the existing products. That seems quite difficult. Android manufacturers seem content to produce a panoply of devices without regard to actual utility and devoid of real strategic thought. As long as they continue to flail about, I see no reason why Apple won't continue to dominate the market.

by cletus 15y ago

usaar333 15y ago

> Look at it another way: how much do you use your phone versus a tablet (assuming you have one)? > If I'm just reading/browsing/consuming, I'll use the iPad in preference to any other device. To each their own. I don't own a tablet, but used my roommates iPad for a few weeks to see what all the fuss was about. I constantly longed for my laptop, which was far more comfortable to use, faster (in terms of web navigation), larger screen space, etc. Sure I use a phone less than a laptop, but I absolutely need both.

MattRogish 15y ago

I think I tend to agree. I have an iPhone, MacBook Air, and iPad. My use of each is vastly different - the Venn diagrams hardly overlap. My phone is primarily used for light-duty consumption of text content (email reading, twitter, etc.) and gaming when I'm bored (waiting rooms, transit, etc.). And, of course, voice communication. Web browsing, reading eBooks, etc. is quite difficult on the small screen, retina-display notwithstanding. I always have my phone with me. The iPad tends much more to web browsing, sending email (it's difficult to send an email of any length on a phone, much easier on the iPad), playing games, etc. I have it sitting next to my couch and when watching a "live" TV show (you know, the things with commercials) I'll absent-mindedly pick up the iPad and thumb through Tweets or HN or Reddit etc. The battery life on the iPad is considerably better than my phone - so when I go on long trips I'll use the iPad as my time-killer. My iPad is within reach 100% of the time at home, and 100% of my time on vacation and long trips. My MBA is used for hard-core web browsing (researching lots of data, figuring out problems = e.g. lots of task switching), programming, writing papers (the physical keyboard can't be beaten; I don't own a bluetooth keyboard so don't know if I'd write on the iPad), etc. I work on my laptop, but in general it stays put (strange, eh?). However, I may take it on short or long term trips if I know that I will be doing any work or needing the power and flexibility of a "real" computer over the iOS devices. This is becoming more infrequent, however. In short: iPhone: Portable gaming device and light-duty text consumption. With me 100% of the time. iPad: Web browsing, gaming, and video player. With me 100% of the time at home and long trips/vacations MBA: Hard-core computer-y stuff that you can't do on tablets or phones (or just too painful to do). Rarely travels with me on vacation and long trips. Apple has done a perfect job positioning all three devices right in the sweet spot of what I want to do. They own each of these scenarios. This is why I firmly believe that Apple will never produce a smaller iPad or a larger iPhone - it doesn't create a "new" space that isn't already overlapped with the iPhone or iPad, and in the weird not-quite-phone, not-quite-tablet space it inherits the weaknesses of both. In order to see a smaller iPad or bigger iPhone, Apple would have to carve out a distinct space in the market that isn't better served by the existing products. That seems quite difficult. Android manufacturers seem content to produce a panoply of devices without regard to actual utility and devoid of real strategic thought. As long as they continue to flail about, I see no reason why Apple won't continue to dominate the market.