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Yes, the twin idiocies of the freebie planners offered by the major investment firms: "Expect to live until" huh? My death has a probability distribution that's
by Syzygies 3y ago
Yes, the twin idiocies of the freebie planners offered by the major investment firms: "Expect to live until" huh? My death has a probability distribution that's better understood than the market, any Monte Carlo simulations should include varying my life expectancy? And "probability of success" huh? Are we so stupid that we fly the plane into a mountainside at 85, rather than modifying behavior? I want to simulate my actual varying life expectancy and varying budget as I respond to market forces. Our house is paid off and I'm a great cook, but I love to spend money as our budget allows.
MaxiFi Planner is the best consumer tool I know; my advisor also uses it. A puzzle that's too hard for it, making me want to script scraping its reports: Should I choose an annuity for part of my TIAA-CREF retirement savings? Even if one understands that the answer is generally no, there's always a number that flips the decision. TIAA annuities pay more than market, but enough more? There's an annuity paradox that programs like MaxiFi Planner reveal: Even a poorly priced annuity lets one plan to spend more. On the other hand we want to optimize our daughter's inheritance.
Economists optimize varying notions of "utility". The above is a game, scoring what one gets to spend adapting to market conditions, taking into account the inheritance as one's year of death varies. This is beyond any planning software I've seen, yet it's exactly the game I will instead play out badly by hand.
- Bostonian 3y agoA current WSJ article may interest you: "A Retirement Tax Break That Ends the Fear of Outliving Your 401(k): The pros and cons of using your nest egg to buy a special longevity annuity in retirement" https://www.wsj.com/articles/retirement-tax-break-qlac-annuity-contract-ee88fe4c https://www.wsj.com/articles/retirement-tax-break-qlac-annui...