5 ms·

I can't speak to the other two, but it's laughable to suggest in 2023 Waymo has "landed" - where is the contribution to Google's bottom line? Where can I buy or

by giobox 3y ago

I can't speak to the other two, but it's laughable to suggest in 2023 Waymo has "landed" - where is the contribution to Google's bottom line? Where can I buy or use Waymo tech outside of some very restricted demo neighborhoods? What is the likelihood this changes in the next few years? I'd be far more prepared to argue Waymo is presently another poster child for a failing Google x project.

ke88y 3y ago
> outside of some very restricted demo neighborhoods Nearly 200 square miles of the greater Phoenix metro. If Waymo services your home address -- and it services a lot of residential area -- then you can probably get anywhere you'd want to go around Phoenix in a driverless taxi. > What is the likelihood this changes in the next few years? I have no insider info, but I'd expect SF and LA County to roll out in the next few years and significant coverage of major metros by the end of next decade. Sorry driverless cars aren't happening fast enough for you, but they are happening.
- giobox 3y ago
  > Sorry driverless cars aren't happening fast enough for you, but they are happening. Don't know why you are saying sorry to me either. They are happening of course, but to say its "landed" at Waymo is hilarious to me. > Nearly 200 square miles of the greater Phoenix metro. Precisely - highly restricted demo neighborhoods. This USA is a massive country. You've also conveniently skipped addressing the current lack of any profit for Google what-so-ever too - a core component of most people's definition of a new line of business being a success. You can't even point to meaningful user growth given the tiny percentage of the country it operates in.
  - ke88y 3y ago
    > Precisely - highly restricted demo neighborhoods. This USA is a massive country. 1. IDK why anyone would spend the money to do driverless everywhere in the USA. You can get to 30% of the population and by far the most profitable taxi markets by going one metro at a time. Even just the major metros in the sunbelt would print insane amounts of money. 2. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the time to go from one metro to N metros in not N*(lifetime of waymo). Ie, the hard part is done. The product has made it to market, at least in the sunbelt, and the poo-poo attitude about being able to go anywhere in the Phoenix metro without a driver is a pretty amazing dismissal.
    - giobox 3y ago
      > You can get to 30% of the population and by far the most profitable taxi markets by going one metro at a time. Even just the major metros in the sunbelt would print insane amounts of money. When this actually happens, then we can discuss Waymo's "landing". This is all hypothetical today. It's not about traversing the whole USA - its about serving more than a handful of customers in demo areas, relatively speaking. Waymo has never done this to date. I'm not disputing Waymo could go somewhere - it might! It hasn't so far.
ManuPop 3y ago
Describing “landed” as “Waymo is profitable and deployed in most of the US” would be like arguing that the space program was a failure because it didn’t lead to profitable space ports and space routes. The equivalent of the moon landing for self driving tech is closer to “they have driven a lot of miles without anybody in the driver seat”, which both Cruise and Waymo have done (>1M miles)
- giobox 3y ago
  What utter nonsense. Google is a publicly traded for-profit company, not a sovereign government or charitable cause. The entire point of Google's moonshots is new profitable businesses, of which Waymo is not and has never been. Comparing to the United States Government because they both used the term "moonshot" is beyond silly. For a Google moonshot to land, it has to make money, or it won't continue to exist. It's really not a complex concept.

by giobox 3y ago

ke88y 3y ago

> outside of some very restricted demo neighborhoods Nearly 200 square miles of the greater Phoenix metro. If Waymo services your home address -- and it services a lot of residential area -- then you can probably get anywhere you'd want to go around Phoenix in a driverless taxi. > What is the likelihood this changes in the next few years? I have no insider info, but I'd expect SF and LA County to roll out in the next few years and significant coverage of major metros by the end of next decade. Sorry driverless cars aren't happening fast enough for you, but they are happening.

giobox 3y ago
> Sorry driverless cars aren't happening fast enough for you, but they are happening. Don't know why you are saying sorry to me either. They are happening of course, but to say its "landed" at Waymo is hilarious to me. > Nearly 200 square miles of the greater Phoenix metro. Precisely - highly restricted demo neighborhoods. This USA is a massive country. You've also conveniently skipped addressing the current lack of any profit for Google what-so-ever too - a core component of most people's definition of a new line of business being a success. You can't even point to meaningful user growth given the tiny percentage of the country it operates in.
- ke88y 3y ago
  > Precisely - highly restricted demo neighborhoods. This USA is a massive country. 1. IDK why anyone would spend the money to do driverless everywhere in the USA. You can get to 30% of the population and by far the most profitable taxi markets by going one metro at a time. Even just the major metros in the sunbelt would print insane amounts of money. 2. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the time to go from one metro to N metros in not N*(lifetime of waymo). Ie, the hard part is done. The product has made it to market, at least in the sunbelt, and the poo-poo attitude about being able to go anywhere in the Phoenix metro without a driver is a pretty amazing dismissal.
  - giobox 3y ago
    > You can get to 30% of the population and by far the most profitable taxi markets by going one metro at a time. Even just the major metros in the sunbelt would print insane amounts of money. When this actually happens, then we can discuss Waymo's "landing". This is all hypothetical today. It's not about traversing the whole USA - its about serving more than a handful of customers in demo areas, relatively speaking. Waymo has never done this to date. I'm not disputing Waymo could go somewhere - it might! It hasn't so far.

ManuPop 3y ago

Describing “landed” as “Waymo is profitable and deployed in most of the US” would be like arguing that the space program was a failure because it didn’t lead to profitable space ports and space routes. The equivalent of the moon landing for self driving tech is closer to “they have driven a lot of miles without anybody in the driver seat”, which both Cruise and Waymo have done (>1M miles)

giobox 3y ago
What utter nonsense. Google is a publicly traded for-profit company, not a sovereign government or charitable cause. The entire point of Google's moonshots is new profitable businesses, of which Waymo is not and has never been. Comparing to the United States Government because they both used the term "moonshot" is beyond silly. For a Google moonshot to land, it has to make money, or it won't continue to exist. It's really not a complex concept.