10 ms·

The iPad Is Unbeatable

99 points by robjama 15y ago

amitparikh 15y ago
Every person in history who has ever said "X is unbeatable" has been eventually proven wrong.
- glhaynes 15y ago
  Well, sure, in the long-term everybody's dead. But the point of the article is that perhaps Apple's success with the iPad will be more like their success with the iPod (market-share domination, 2nd place is only a minor player) than their success with the iPhone (lots of profit but lots of other players are making lots of revenue, at least).
shingen 15y ago
Well there's a pile of hubris a mile high.
chapel 15y ago
I think this is a suitable explanation for this 'article'. From the authors profile page: "Farhad Manjoo is Slate's technology columnist and the author of True Enough: Learning To Live in a Post-Fact Society." Edit: I really feel that any person saying X is unbeatable, is really underestimating competition and the drive to improve what they make. The iPad at this moment is the best tablet overall, but it won't be long before someone is able to match the quality, and surpass in features. I think what really will clinch this is that once Android tablets come out in force, there will be so many options the iPad will be lost in the noise. This isn't to say the iPad will be the only right choice in that situation, just that when there are options, especially cheaper options, people tend to shop for what suits their needs at a price they can stomach. The iPad is still too much for most consumers. I myself cannot justify the cost for a consumption device, not to mention how I dislike Apple's handling of their app ecosystem.
- zefhous 15y ago
  Don't just dismiss it outright. If you have some insight and think the article is wrong then refute it with a meaningful, substantial argument.
  - Jaecen 15y ago
    A couple easy points: They claim it can't be beat on price, but, due to the varying size and features of other tablets, that's simply not true (see Asus' MeMo 370T http://news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-57393947-64/google-asus-to-hook-up-on-7-inch-android-tablet-says-report/ http://news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-57393947-64/google-asus-to...). They claim it can't be beat on battery life, but reviews have shown that the Galaxy Tab 10.1 and Transformer Prime both come within a few percentage points of usable time. Certainly close enough for practical use.
    - krschultz 15y ago
      Since when did "come within a few percentage points of it" and "beating it" become the same thing? If the other tablets want to win, they have to be better. Either cheaper or more functional or more novel or better styled.
      - Jaecen 15y ago
        You're right, I stated the claim wrong. The correct claim is "None of Apple’s rivals has managed to even match the iPad’s battery life." On that count, they are, for practical purposes, incorrect. Additionally, Engadget's test have shown The Galaxy Tab 7.7 significantly besting the iPad 2 in battery life (http://www.engadget.com/2012/02/07/samsung-galaxy-tab-7-7-review-international-edition/ http://www.engadget.com/2012/02/07/samsung-galaxy-tab-7-7-re...).
    - ccoggins 15y ago
      Agree. A quick search on Best Buy's site shows only 7 out of 47 android tablets are 499 or above. Granted, the Ipad2 just dropped to 399, but up until a week ago most of the android tablets were cheaper than the ipad.
shingen 15y ago
This: "Because Apple has used its plentiful cash to corner the market on key tablet components—like touch-screen displays—many competitors will find that the only way to make a tablet with comparable features but a lower price is to sell it at a loss. You can’t do that unless you have some other way to make money, like a big digital media store." That argument was used in regards to the iPhone as well. Apple's supposedly insurmountable component purchases would make it impossible for competitors to ... compete. And there's Android, out activating the iPhone three to one. Apparently those Android phones are either made out of cardboard, or the manufacturers found components. In reality, 2012 will be the year the iPad loses its market dominance in tablets. By the end of 2013, Apple will hold 1/4 to 1/3 of the market, which is exactly what their entire business model is designed around: lower market share, much higher margins.
- davidcollantes 15y ago
  I will remember and follow your forecast ("In reality...") very closely. A year from now I will be back to this one. We'll see.
  - shingen 15y ago
    I hope you will. The assumptions by the slate article defy the nature of constantly improving hardware with falling prices. The iPad, unlike the iPhone, doesn't get to benefit from the carrier subsidies that hide the real price from consumers. The radical majority of iPad sales are the wifi model. The iPad will be left to compete straight up on price, much like Apple's PC products. Cheap tablets will dominate the market, Mr. Moore will make sure of it.
    - pooriaazimi 15y ago
      > The radical majority of iPad sales are the wifi model. I absolutely disagree. Unfortunately there is no data on how much each version of iPad has sold, but eBay says that Wi-Fi model accounts for about 60% of all (of their) iPad sales: http://www.quora.com/iPad/What-percentage-of-iPads-sold-are-3G http://www.quora.com/iPad/What-percentage-of-iPads-sold-are-... On the other hand, it's been rumored that Apple (at least for the first batch of iPad 2's) had ordered 60% 3G and 40% Wi-Fi: http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/02/04/over_60_of_apples_first_wave_ipad_2_production_to_be_3g_models.html http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/02/04/over_60_of_app... I believe the first (60% Wi-Fi), but still it's not * radical majority*.
davidcollantes 15y ago
I found the article right on the spot. It is unbeatable. For how long is the important question without an answer, so far.
StavrosK 15y ago
Whatever, I just got a Transformer Prime and wouldn't exchange it (or any other comparable Android tablet) for ten iPads. Well, I would, and then I would sell them and get another Android tablet. I haven't liked a piece of equipment so much in ages.
- jc4p 15y ago
  When'd you get your Prime? I attempted to purchase one for my girlfriend for Christmas and it was a big mess of a problem that I don't ever want to deal with again containing canceled after canceled preorders and finally after getting the device having it force reboot and lose WiFi every time it went to sleep until ASUS pushed an update weeks later.
  - StavrosK 15y ago
    I went to Best Buy two days ago, when I came in the US, bought one in a few minutes and left. I have zero issues with it (maybe a little bit of graphical flickering for a few ms in the recently used programs list).
- lemieux 15y ago
  Same here! Combined with the keyboard dock, the Prime is really awesome. I totally replaced my laptop with that.
  - StavrosK 15y ago
    I have an Air, so I didn't need the dock, but from what I've seen, it's definitely very easy to replace your laptop with one, especially if you don't do anything weird like programming or whatnot. It's fantastic for checking emails, browsing the web, etc. I want it for watching shows and browsing the web, which was a bit overkill, but I figured I'd indulge myself. I love it, though.
- arjn 15y ago
  I have the Asus Transformer 101, been using it since May 2011 and its been just great. Looking forward to eventually getting a Prime or one of its successors.
Gustomaximus 15y ago
This is a bit-o-nonsense; - unbeatable tech...people said this about the iPhone. But 4 years on there were a pretty good set of alternatives. - Price being unbeatable... low prices are just not Apple with their 40% markup goal. I'm sure we will see Samsung, Huawei and others pushing the price point down on tablets. Price matters, remember those dumped HP tablets! - "they would still lack all of the tablet-optimized apps that are now clogging Apple’s App Store"... really? Android is doing a pretty good job at this on the smartphone market. It can be done. Apple have an awesome head start but there is no unbeatable in this market.
megaman821 15y ago
Well the title is a bit of hyperbole, but Apple is in an unbelievably strong position right now. I think key on the Android side is going to be value. They really need at $99-$250 price points. On the Windows side, I think Microsoft is playing their cards right. They have virtually no apps but with Windows 8 they will have a storefront that will be installed on tens of millions of devices, which should solve the app problem over time.
cletus 15y ago
"Unbeatable" is hyperbole but it's not that far off the mark. IMHO the iPad will dominate the tablet market for at least the next 3 years. People like analogies. Two regular comparisons on HN and elsewhere are Windows vs Mac and iPhone vs Android (interestingly the second is also used as an analogy for the first). All of these analogies are wrong. A smartphone has very high (what I call) built-in utility. You can use it to make and receive calls, send and receive SMSs/emails, take photos, get directions and browse the Web. At a guess, this accounts for probably 70% of smartphone usage. A large portion of the rest would be (again, I'm guessing here) games. Android is a commoditizing product. With the standard Google apps, you get 70% of the utility (based on my earlier assumptions) of an iPhone. The point here is the ecosystem doesn't matter as much. The iPad is a different beast entirely and (as I've been saying for 1.5+ years now) IMHO much more important and will be a much bigger market than the phone market. It will (and already is) cannibalizing a lot of PC usage and sales. The thing to note about the iPad is that 70% figure is (at least anecodtally) vastly different. The ecosystem matters. Apps and content matter much more than on phones. And this is where the iPad competitors really suffer and will continue to suffer. It's why I have the most hope for Amazon in the iPad competitor space because they have the closest thing to what the iTunes ecosystem can provide. Without this, despite the relatively low price, I don't think the Kindle Fire would've sold anywhere near the number of units than it did. A better analogy for the iPad than the iPhone is actually the iPod. 10+ years after the iPod's release it still accounts for the majority of MP3 player sales. Yes you can rip your own CDs and buy your MP3s from Amazon and elsewhere but the convenience of the ecosystem trumps pretty much everything else. Last year it was rumoured that Apple would kill the Classic until it was pointed out that the Classic is the fifth biggest selling MP3 player (the top 4 are all Apple too). Apple's supply chain management, innovative financing and unprecedented warchest certainly have given it a massive advantage, no question. No one else can (yet) create a product at similar specs for a similar price. But it's the ecosystem that has driven and will continue to drive the iPad's dominance.
- usaar333 15y ago
  > The iPad is a different beast entirely and (as I've been saying for 1.5+ years now) IMHO much more important and will be a much bigger market than the phone market. It will (and already is) cannibalizing a lot of PC usage and sales. Three questions/comments: 1) Why do you feel it is bigger than the phone market? I'm skeptical of this, at least until the day tablets and laptops merge (imagine a tablet that docks into a keyboard/touchpad). Almost everyone needs a phone these days. And if you could only have one, I imagine most would take the laptop/desktop over the tablet. 2) How much evidence is there for large-scale cannibalization? I always figured the iPad is growing so much faster than PCs, because the PC market is saturated and frequent upgrades are no longer necessary. Everyone has a computer already and a 4+ year old one works fine. Tablets are new and desirable - but is there that much evidence yet that a tablet is actually more desirable than a computer? 3) Strongly disagree that apps are more important on a tablet than a phone. Phones are lower power typically and screen space is at a premium, so I'd argue that native apps are more important on a phone. Tablets should be able to handle webapps fine.
RandallBrown 15y ago
The iPad is not quite a computer replacement. Most people are going to have an iPad and a desktop or laptop as their main computer. The windows tablets will be a computer replacement because you'll be able to jump into desktop mode and keyboard and mouse around. The problem microsoft is going to have is getting their tablets into a form factor/price point that is competitive with the iPad. It has to be just as fast, just as cheap, and just as small. Unless Microsoft starts selling their own tablets, I think the only company really capable of building an Apple quality product is Apple.
navs 15y ago
I'm not a fan of tablets at all but at least I can use my iPad with minimal frustration. I recently acquired a Samsung Tab 10.1 and its been a frustrating experience. If I had to sum up my experiences with tablets: iPads: reliable, albeit boring Samsung Tab: kill it with fire. The Samsung Tab just killed any enthusiasm I ever had for Android.
- UrLicht 15y ago
  I'm curious to know what was so frustrating. I've had my tab for a few months and love it to death.
  - navs 15y ago
    Yes, I'm puzzled by how many folks gave it a good review. The tab is slow, jerky slow when it comes to animation, sometimes freezing mid-transition. Most of my touch actions either don't register or are delayed. A lot of the time I can't open the camera because: 'media scanner is running'. I've given it a factory reset, removed all widgets and while performance improved slightly, it was short term. I want to like it. I want to give it a chance but any extended use causes me to scream obscenities.
protomyth 15y ago
The iPod (5gb) started at $399, had an added model the following year (10gb) at $499, then started a slow downward price with adding new model types at the low end. The iPad just did its first $100 drop by using the previous model (per iPhone strategy). I would expect that next year we will see another $100 drop either through the old model approach or introduction of a new member of the line. It is really going to be hard for companies without Apple's supply change to keep up.
SageRaven 15y ago
When the hell am I gonna be able to buy an 8.5x11" e-paper device for reading conference papers and other full-sized PDFs? I know this isn't as sexy and glossy as the likes of tablets, but I can't be the only on who's been impatiently waiting for such as series of devices to crop up. Tablets seem nice and all (I haven't been compelled to get one), but I want a really awesome good-sized reading device. The Kindle DX is so tempting, but it's too expensive (relative to tablets) and it's still just a wee bit too small.
- krschultz 15y ago
  The Kindle DX is really nice. I have one and prefer it to the regular size one quite a bit.
- icefox 15y ago
  While not the original reason I bought it I put an alarming number of conference papers on it to read. It isn't the best, but definitely surpassed the good enough test for me.
Alcedes 15y ago
Android on the tablet will be doomed to the Zune fate.
harold 15y ago
Wordstar, Netscape, Myspace, Palm OS. These and many more were once considered "unbeatable". Apple has great momentum right now. But if history teaches us anything, it's that nothing lasts for very long in tech, even if it feels like it will.
edw519 15y ago
1979: The IBM 370 is unbeatable. 1982: The IBM PC is unbeatable. 1985: SONY is unbeatable. 1988: Microsoft DOS is unbeatable. 1990: Kodak is unbeatable. 1993: Windows is unbeatable. 1994: AOL is unbeatable 1996: Netscape is unbeatable. 1998: Internet Exlorer is unbeatable. 2002: Krispy Kream is unbeatable. 2004: MySpace is unbeatable. 2006: Real estate is unbeatable. 2008: Toyota is unbeatable. 2012: The Ipad is unbeatable.
- bonch 15y ago
  2002: The iPod killer is coming. 2003: The iPod killer is coming. 2004: The iPod killer is coming. 2005: The iPod killer is coming. 2006: The iPod killer is coming. 2007: The iPod killer is coming. 2008: The iPod killer is coming. 2009: The iPod killer is coming. 2010: We give up on iPod killers. 2011: The iPad killer is coming. 2012: The iPad killer is coming.
- raganwald 15y ago
  Tense matters. In 1979 the IBM 370 was unbeatable. “The iPad is unbeatable” is true. “The iPad will always be unbeatable” is a different statement.
  - deleted 15y ago
    [deleted]
  - eco 15y ago
    The subtitle of the article is: > Why Apple’s tablet competitors don’t stand a chance—and maybe never will.
    - danudey 15y ago
      I believe that subtitle is referring to, for example the iPod's dominance, where since its launch the only thing that competitors have managed to do is claw back scraps of market share to bring it down to 78%, from its high of 90%+ in the past. Is the iPod unbeatable? Well, no, of course not. It's losing a sales, but mostly, from what I've seen, to smartphones, and of those, most are iPod Touches or iPhones. It's possible that soon, the iPod's sales will dwindle to minimal numbers, but it may still hold the majority of the market of MP3 players. Apple's MP3 player competitors didn't stand a chance, and the way things look they never will, not until something changes pretty dramatically in the market. That's the key issue. The iPad isn't 'unbeatable'. Something better will come along eventually. My question is, is that 'something better' going to be from Apple's tablet competitors? Or from another Apple project that renders tablets in general obsolete for the majority? I suppose a better title would be 'Apple's tablet competitors can't beat the iPad', which seems true to me until they change something to improve their chances.
calebgilbert 15y ago
and the Titanic was unsinkable...
artursapek 15y ago
Sometimes the way I see Apple promoting iPad makes me see it as a fad, but sometimes it feels like there are spots it can secure for good. For example, the new TV ad shows a clip of someone making a fake oil painting with their finger. That's a fad - people who use that will be people who want to see what it's like to paint once or twice, not serious painters. A fat finger on a glass pane will never be a substitute for a brush on canvas. The other promotional video on their homepage right now shows a yuppie mom using it as a visual grocery list, a mechanic doing oily-fingered conversions on it on some gruddy garage floor while handling heavy metal equipment, old men playing backgammon, and a bunch of young adults around a table "jamming and recording" music together. All of this is gimmickry. The ads also show people browsing photos and videos and reading iBooks. These are things I can see people using iPad for more than few times, and the key to having tablets not fizzle out as a fad is letting the money pour in from gimmickry while focusing on these functions that can make tablets last - like a photo album and a book. People will never use iPads for half the stuff they're being marketed for. People will certainly try it (and make Apple a ton of money in the process), but they'll end up preferring the former methods because a pane of glass can only emulate them and not outdo them.
- glhaynes 15y ago
  The vast majority don't make art and music with their computers, either, but we don't consider it "gimmickry" when some do. Most computer users use their computers for a narrow and mostly similar range of things, just like most iPad users do. Both computer ads and iPad ads mix a few of the niche apps with a few more commonly used apps because it makes a good ad. I think it's really clear that tablets are not a fad or in danger of fizzling out.
  - artursapek 15y ago
    The difference I'm pointing out is between these niche apps - sure they exist on both platforms. Plenty of professionals produce music and art with computers, I don't think I need to prove that. But nobody will do this stuff on tablets. It's because personal computers will always be more sophisticated than tablets, both in terms of hardware and input. On an iPad you can play with a fake 6-inch guitar with your fingers in Garageband. That's limited gimmickry, and will only be fun/interesting the first few times. On a Macbook you can directly record an actual guitar and produce an album in Pro Tools. Nobody will ever produce an album on an iPad. The same goes for visual and physical art, nobody will ever use iPads for Photoshop or AutoCAD. These are just things that require complex UI that you can't use without a precise, physical form of input like a mouse and keyboard. Touch input is too bulky for things like that. There are good fields to go into with tablet apps - we're already seeing this with the watered-down photo editing Apple is selling. http://i.imgur.com/HUBeu.jpg http://i.imgur.com/HUBeu.jpg Some apps, like this and iBooks, can still be useful to typical consumers when they're this simple. But a lot of the other stuff is just gimmickry that sells on shallow novelty.
thought_alarm 15y ago
Microsoft is the only company that can compete with Apple in the consumer software space. The difference between the iPad and the iPod is that a consumer tablet platform really plays into Microsoft's strengths as a platform company in a way the iPod and iTunes absolutely did not. The traditional cell phone manufacturers will continue to use Android (or whatever) to sell mountains of cell phones like they have been doing for over a decade, but a tablet is a consumer software platform and after using Windows 8 it's painfully clear that only Microsoft and Apple really understand how to deliver such a platform. It will be a two horse race. The problem for Microsoft is that it will be Windows 8 v2 or v3 before is starts to match iOS feature for feature, and that's at least 2 years away. I may be on my 3rd iPad by then.
- forcer 15y ago
  Why do you think it will be 2 years away? I would not be suprised if by the end of this year, just few weeks after of W8 release there will be tons of apps that will match what 90% of consumers need. There are already lots of developers building W8 apps and they will all be tablet ready if MS plays it right - and they would be completely dumb if it would not be ready when they already did such a huge leap with their W8 UI revamp for laptops/desktops.
mcantelon 15y ago
The "post-PC" era will eliminate PCs like McDonalds eliminated kitchens.
kayoone 15y ago
Its funny. Apple sells 15M iPads per quarter, more than any PC manufacturer sells PCs. For comparision, they sell around 2M Macs in that timeframe. I know some people who own an iPad, i do so myself. But whenever i talk to them about it or look at myself i realize: almost noone really uses them. Maybe thats a thing with techies, so we dont really have use for such a casual device but i use my iphone alot daily, like 10x more than my iPad.
- navs 15y ago
  I think it's the convenience of always having the iPhone on you. The only time I reach for my iPad or Samsung Tab is when I want to read comics (thanks Comixology) or want to play a game.
ChuckMcM 15y ago
The title is link-baitey of course, but the general thesis is this: * control over essential components. * market leadership in applications. * continual innovation. The first one is the way in which Apple dominates and controls the supply chain. It's not monopolistic since they are paying real money for goods from third parties, but one has to wonder if there is restrictions on starting up new production lines. This becomes a huge barrier to entry to anyone else. I'm really curious to know where ASUS is getting their 1920x1200 glass for the new Transformer Prime. Like nuclear proliferation, there are a few key components that can prevent others effectively from building tablets. These are currently displays and radios. The application one has been discussed a lot on HN, but basically what it boils down to is Apple's policies with regards to applications acceptable for publication creates a more homogenous user experience. There is anecdotal evidence that this translates into a user perception of 'quality' to those applications. And finally they don't stop, like Intel's tick-tock sort of model they move incrementally forward each release. You can argue that the 'new iPad' is what the iPad 2 should have been but missed out, or you can argue its the same old same old with just a higher res screen and 4G, but the release after release means that if you're an Asus or a Samsung or a Dell, Etc and your development cycle is 2 years you have to guess where they will be in 2 years if you want to compete head to head. That is harder than you might think until you've tried it a few times. And of course the risk is that the 'new' thing might have come out of left field so its high risk. A strategy which has more understood risk is to create your own product in the space which has your own vision of what it will be, but folks like RIM who have tried that have been challenged to think outside the space that they were successful in. Apple's advantage here was that the iPad is in many ways just a big iPod touch. And they had a lot of information about the touch which could help them vet various ideas.
georgemcbay 15y ago
In the pure tablet space, iPad probably is unbeatable for the foreseeable future, but I think a lot of people are underestimating Microsoft's potential to change the game with Windows 8. As an early Asus Transformer TF101 adopter I'm totally sold on the idea of a tablet/laptop combo but as much as I like Android as a phone and basic tablet OS, I find myself wishing I could use the Transformer as a full-blown no-excuses laptop for development, etc (there are some sort-of-options there involving installing Ubuntu for ARM, but too much hassle to deal at this point and not well supported). Enter Windows 8 and the eventual laptops that are either ARM tablets with Metro-only or full blown x86 laptops when the tablet/screen is docked. That is the device I want. To some degree I don't care if it is running Windows 8 or Android + Linux, or OS X + iOS, but I suspect Microsoft will have their solution polished up before anyone else since nobody else is making strong moves into this space right now.
raesene2 15y ago
I'm not sure that the iPad is unbeatable (and in the long run what is, really), but in my opinion it is and will continue to be extremely successful for one main reason. (Most) people don't want a computer. They want something to give them access to shop online or to keep in touch with friends, to watch videos or to play games and at the moment the iPad provides the easiest, most hassle free way to achieve that. No A-V, easy updates, no worries about drivers or compatibility and it's relatively cheap. It's also very easy to use. As an anecdotal point I've recently introduced my mother who's in her sixties and father-in-law who's in his eighties to iPads and they've both been able to use them easily and without a lot of the questions and problems that technologists learn to dread when they're providing family IT support. The iPad isn't likely to replace laptops or desktops for IT professionals any time soon, but I think that for a lot of people it does what they want in an easier more intuitive way.
jack-r-abbit 15y ago
I guess this is how we are different. I am an avid Android user (phone & tablet). I like my devices. They work for me. I think both the iPhone and the iPad are nice pieces of hardware. They are slick. They function well. They do about the same things that my devices do. Some things are better... somethings are not (they do lack a couple things I really enjoy about my devices). Unfortunately for Apple, they are the very reason I probably will never own one of those devices. But if the iPad is what works for you... awesome. Use it. Love it. I don't think we need an "iPad killer" or an "iPhone killer". It would be a very sad world if there truly was only one option for a phone or tablet (even if it was an Android based device). There is plenty of space for multiple players. It is just plain arrogant douche-baggery to go around with this "the iPad is all you will ever need so stop looking" attitude. The best tool is the one that works best for you. Funny thing is, that is not be the same tool for everybody. Do I care that the iPad may have 99.9999% of the market share of tablets today? Nope. Just because all those people decided the iPad was the best tool for them it is irrelevant to which tool is best for me. Perhaps down the road more people will start choosing something else. Maybe not. I still like my choice. I'm not going to tell you what device to use... so don't start telling me which one I should (unless you're just trying to be an arrogant douche wagon for the heck of it). But hey... what do I know. I'm just some idiot that doesn't own an iPhad. rolls eyes
raldi 15y ago
"Meanwhile Google, which makes all its money through ads, will find itself reaching its customers through a device made by a hostile rival." So no change there, at least.

99 points by robjama 15y ago

amitparikh 15y ago

Every person in history who has ever said "X is unbeatable" has been eventually proven wrong.

glhaynes 15y ago
Well, sure, in the long-term everybody's dead. But the point of the article is that perhaps Apple's success with the iPad will be more like their success with the iPod (market-share domination, 2nd place is only a minor player) than their success with the iPhone (lots of profit but lots of other players are making lots of revenue, at least).

shingen 15y ago

Well there's a pile of hubris a mile high.

chapel 15y ago

I think this is a suitable explanation for this 'article'. From the authors profile page: "Farhad Manjoo is Slate's technology columnist and the author of True Enough: Learning To Live in a Post-Fact Society." Edit: I really feel that any person saying X is unbeatable, is really underestimating competition and the drive to improve what they make. The iPad at this moment is the best tablet overall, but it won't be long before someone is able to match the quality, and surpass in features. I think what really will clinch this is that once Android tablets come out in force, there will be so many options the iPad will be lost in the noise. This isn't to say the iPad will be the only right choice in that situation, just that when there are options, especially cheaper options, people tend to shop for what suits their needs at a price they can stomach. The iPad is still too much for most consumers. I myself cannot justify the cost for a consumption device, not to mention how I dislike Apple's handling of their app ecosystem.

zefhous 15y ago
Don't just dismiss it outright. If you have some insight and think the article is wrong then refute it with a meaningful, substantial argument.
- Jaecen 15y ago
  A couple easy points: They claim it can't be beat on price, but, due to the varying size and features of other tablets, that's simply not true (see Asus' MeMo 370T http://news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-57393947-64/google-asus-to-hook-up-on-7-inch-android-tablet-says-report/ http://news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-57393947-64/google-asus-to...). They claim it can't be beat on battery life, but reviews have shown that the Galaxy Tab 10.1 and Transformer Prime both come within a few percentage points of usable time. Certainly close enough for practical use.
  - krschultz 15y ago
    Since when did "come within a few percentage points of it" and "beating it" become the same thing? If the other tablets want to win, they have to be better. Either cheaper or more functional or more novel or better styled.
    - Jaecen 15y ago
      You're right, I stated the claim wrong. The correct claim is "None of Apple’s rivals has managed to even match the iPad’s battery life." On that count, they are, for practical purposes, incorrect. Additionally, Engadget's test have shown The Galaxy Tab 7.7 significantly besting the iPad 2 in battery life (http://www.engadget.com/2012/02/07/samsung-galaxy-tab-7-7-review-international-edition/ http://www.engadget.com/2012/02/07/samsung-galaxy-tab-7-7-re...).
  - ccoggins 15y ago
    Agree. A quick search on Best Buy's site shows only 7 out of 47 android tablets are 499 or above. Granted, the Ipad2 just dropped to 399, but up until a week ago most of the android tablets were cheaper than the ipad.

shingen 15y ago

This: "Because Apple has used its plentiful cash to corner the market on key tablet components—like touch-screen displays—many competitors will find that the only way to make a tablet with comparable features but a lower price is to sell it at a loss. You can’t do that unless you have some other way to make money, like a big digital media store." That argument was used in regards to the iPhone as well. Apple's supposedly insurmountable component purchases would make it impossible for competitors to ... compete. And there's Android, out activating the iPhone three to one. Apparently those Android phones are either made out of cardboard, or the manufacturers found components. In reality, 2012 will be the year the iPad loses its market dominance in tablets. By the end of 2013, Apple will hold 1/4 to 1/3 of the market, which is exactly what their entire business model is designed around: lower market share, much higher margins.

davidcollantes 15y ago
I will remember and follow your forecast ("In reality...") very closely. A year from now I will be back to this one. We'll see.
- shingen 15y ago
  I hope you will. The assumptions by the slate article defy the nature of constantly improving hardware with falling prices. The iPad, unlike the iPhone, doesn't get to benefit from the carrier subsidies that hide the real price from consumers. The radical majority of iPad sales are the wifi model. The iPad will be left to compete straight up on price, much like Apple's PC products. Cheap tablets will dominate the market, Mr. Moore will make sure of it.
  - pooriaazimi 15y ago
    > The radical majority of iPad sales are the wifi model. I absolutely disagree. Unfortunately there is no data on how much each version of iPad has sold, but eBay says that Wi-Fi model accounts for about 60% of all (of their) iPad sales: http://www.quora.com/iPad/What-percentage-of-iPads-sold-are-3G http://www.quora.com/iPad/What-percentage-of-iPads-sold-are-... On the other hand, it's been rumored that Apple (at least for the first batch of iPad 2's) had ordered 60% 3G and 40% Wi-Fi: http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/02/04/over_60_of_apples_first_wave_ipad_2_production_to_be_3g_models.html http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/02/04/over_60_of_app... I believe the first (60% Wi-Fi), but still it's not * radical majority*.

davidcollantes 15y ago

I found the article right on the spot. It is unbeatable. For how long is the important question without an answer, so far.

StavrosK 15y ago

Whatever, I just got a Transformer Prime and wouldn't exchange it (or any other comparable Android tablet) for ten iPads. Well, I would, and then I would sell them and get another Android tablet. I haven't liked a piece of equipment so much in ages.

jc4p 15y ago
When'd you get your Prime? I attempted to purchase one for my girlfriend for Christmas and it was a big mess of a problem that I don't ever want to deal with again containing canceled after canceled preorders and finally after getting the device having it force reboot and lose WiFi every time it went to sleep until ASUS pushed an update weeks later.
- StavrosK 15y ago
  I went to Best Buy two days ago, when I came in the US, bought one in a few minutes and left. I have zero issues with it (maybe a little bit of graphical flickering for a few ms in the recently used programs list).
lemieux 15y ago
Same here! Combined with the keyboard dock, the Prime is really awesome. I totally replaced my laptop with that.
- StavrosK 15y ago
  I have an Air, so I didn't need the dock, but from what I've seen, it's definitely very easy to replace your laptop with one, especially if you don't do anything weird like programming or whatnot. It's fantastic for checking emails, browsing the web, etc. I want it for watching shows and browsing the web, which was a bit overkill, but I figured I'd indulge myself. I love it, though.
arjn 15y ago
I have the Asus Transformer 101, been using it since May 2011 and its been just great. Looking forward to eventually getting a Prime or one of its successors.

Gustomaximus 15y ago

This is a bit-o-nonsense; - unbeatable tech...people said this about the iPhone. But 4 years on there were a pretty good set of alternatives. - Price being unbeatable... low prices are just not Apple with their 40% markup goal. I'm sure we will see Samsung, Huawei and others pushing the price point down on tablets. Price matters, remember those dumped HP tablets! - "they would still lack all of the tablet-optimized apps that are now clogging Apple’s App Store"... really? Android is doing a pretty good job at this on the smartphone market. It can be done. Apple have an awesome head start but there is no unbeatable in this market.

megaman821 15y ago

Well the title is a bit of hyperbole, but Apple is in an unbelievably strong position right now. I think key on the Android side is going to be value. They really need at $99-$250 price points. On the Windows side, I think Microsoft is playing their cards right. They have virtually no apps but with Windows 8 they will have a storefront that will be installed on tens of millions of devices, which should solve the app problem over time.

cletus 15y ago

"Unbeatable" is hyperbole but it's not that far off the mark. IMHO the iPad will dominate the tablet market for at least the next 3 years. People like analogies. Two regular comparisons on HN and elsewhere are Windows vs Mac and iPhone vs Android (interestingly the second is also used as an analogy for the first). All of these analogies are wrong. A smartphone has very high (what I call) built-in utility. You can use it to make and receive calls, send and receive SMSs/emails, take photos, get directions and browse the Web. At a guess, this accounts for probably 70% of smartphone usage. A large portion of the rest would be (again, I'm guessing here) games. Android is a commoditizing product. With the standard Google apps, you get 70% of the utility (based on my earlier assumptions) of an iPhone. The point here is the ecosystem doesn't matter as much. The iPad is a different beast entirely and (as I've been saying for 1.5+ years now) IMHO much more important and will be a much bigger market than the phone market. It will (and already is) cannibalizing a lot of PC usage and sales. The thing to note about the iPad is that 70% figure is (at least anecodtally) vastly different. The ecosystem matters. Apps and content matter much more than on phones. And this is where the iPad competitors really suffer and will continue to suffer. It's why I have the most hope for Amazon in the iPad competitor space because they have the closest thing to what the iTunes ecosystem can provide. Without this, despite the relatively low price, I don't think the Kindle Fire would've sold anywhere near the number of units than it did. A better analogy for the iPad than the iPhone is actually the iPod. 10+ years after the iPod's release it still accounts for the majority of MP3 player sales. Yes you can rip your own CDs and buy your MP3s from Amazon and elsewhere but the convenience of the ecosystem trumps pretty much everything else. Last year it was rumoured that Apple would kill the Classic until it was pointed out that the Classic is the fifth biggest selling MP3 player (the top 4 are all Apple too). Apple's supply chain management, innovative financing and unprecedented warchest certainly have given it a massive advantage, no question. No one else can (yet) create a product at similar specs for a similar price. But it's the ecosystem that has driven and will continue to drive the iPad's dominance.

usaar333 15y ago
> The iPad is a different beast entirely and (as I've been saying for 1.5+ years now) IMHO much more important and will be a much bigger market than the phone market. It will (and already is) cannibalizing a lot of PC usage and sales. Three questions/comments: 1) Why do you feel it is bigger than the phone market? I'm skeptical of this, at least until the day tablets and laptops merge (imagine a tablet that docks into a keyboard/touchpad). Almost everyone needs a phone these days. And if you could only have one, I imagine most would take the laptop/desktop over the tablet. 2) How much evidence is there for large-scale cannibalization? I always figured the iPad is growing so much faster than PCs, because the PC market is saturated and frequent upgrades are no longer necessary. Everyone has a computer already and a 4+ year old one works fine. Tablets are new and desirable - but is there that much evidence yet that a tablet is actually more desirable than a computer? 3) Strongly disagree that apps are more important on a tablet than a phone. Phones are lower power typically and screen space is at a premium, so I'd argue that native apps are more important on a phone. Tablets should be able to handle webapps fine.

RandallBrown 15y ago

The iPad is not quite a computer replacement. Most people are going to have an iPad and a desktop or laptop as their main computer. The windows tablets will be a computer replacement because you'll be able to jump into desktop mode and keyboard and mouse around. The problem microsoft is going to have is getting their tablets into a form factor/price point that is competitive with the iPad. It has to be just as fast, just as cheap, and just as small. Unless Microsoft starts selling their own tablets, I think the only company really capable of building an Apple quality product is Apple.

navs 15y ago

I'm not a fan of tablets at all but at least I can use my iPad with minimal frustration. I recently acquired a Samsung Tab 10.1 and its been a frustrating experience. If I had to sum up my experiences with tablets: iPads: reliable, albeit boring Samsung Tab: kill it with fire. The Samsung Tab just killed any enthusiasm I ever had for Android.

UrLicht 15y ago
I'm curious to know what was so frustrating. I've had my tab for a few months and love it to death.
- navs 15y ago
  Yes, I'm puzzled by how many folks gave it a good review. The tab is slow, jerky slow when it comes to animation, sometimes freezing mid-transition. Most of my touch actions either don't register or are delayed. A lot of the time I can't open the camera because: 'media scanner is running'. I've given it a factory reset, removed all widgets and while performance improved slightly, it was short term. I want to like it. I want to give it a chance but any extended use causes me to scream obscenities.

protomyth 15y ago

The iPod (5gb) started at $399, had an added model the following year (10gb) at $499, then started a slow downward price with adding new model types at the low end. The iPad just did its first $100 drop by using the previous model (per iPhone strategy). I would expect that next year we will see another $100 drop either through the old model approach or introduction of a new member of the line. It is really going to be hard for companies without Apple's supply change to keep up.

SageRaven 15y ago

When the hell am I gonna be able to buy an 8.5x11" e-paper device for reading conference papers and other full-sized PDFs? I know this isn't as sexy and glossy as the likes of tablets, but I can't be the only on who's been impatiently waiting for such as series of devices to crop up. Tablets seem nice and all (I haven't been compelled to get one), but I want a really awesome good-sized reading device. The Kindle DX is so tempting, but it's too expensive (relative to tablets) and it's still just a wee bit too small.

krschultz 15y ago
The Kindle DX is really nice. I have one and prefer it to the regular size one quite a bit.
icefox 15y ago
While not the original reason I bought it I put an alarming number of conference papers on it to read. It isn't the best, but definitely surpassed the good enough test for me.

Alcedes 15y ago

Android on the tablet will be doomed to the Zune fate.

harold 15y ago

Wordstar, Netscape, Myspace, Palm OS. These and many more were once considered "unbeatable". Apple has great momentum right now. But if history teaches us anything, it's that nothing lasts for very long in tech, even if it feels like it will.

edw519 15y ago

1979: The IBM 370 is unbeatable. 1982: The IBM PC is unbeatable. 1985: SONY is unbeatable. 1988: Microsoft DOS is unbeatable. 1990: Kodak is unbeatable. 1993: Windows is unbeatable. 1994: AOL is unbeatable 1996: Netscape is unbeatable. 1998: Internet Exlorer is unbeatable. 2002: Krispy Kream is unbeatable. 2004: MySpace is unbeatable. 2006: Real estate is unbeatable. 2008: Toyota is unbeatable. 2012: The Ipad is unbeatable.

bonch 15y ago
2002: The iPod killer is coming. 2003: The iPod killer is coming. 2004: The iPod killer is coming. 2005: The iPod killer is coming. 2006: The iPod killer is coming. 2007: The iPod killer is coming. 2008: The iPod killer is coming. 2009: The iPod killer is coming. 2010: We give up on iPod killers. 2011: The iPad killer is coming. 2012: The iPad killer is coming.
raganwald 15y ago
Tense matters. In 1979 the IBM 370 was unbeatable. “The iPad is unbeatable” is true. “The iPad will always be unbeatable” is a different statement.
- deleted 15y ago
  [deleted]
- eco 15y ago
  The subtitle of the article is: > Why Apple’s tablet competitors don’t stand a chance—and maybe never will.
  - danudey 15y ago
    I believe that subtitle is referring to, for example the iPod's dominance, where since its launch the only thing that competitors have managed to do is claw back scraps of market share to bring it down to 78%, from its high of 90%+ in the past. Is the iPod unbeatable? Well, no, of course not. It's losing a sales, but mostly, from what I've seen, to smartphones, and of those, most are iPod Touches or iPhones. It's possible that soon, the iPod's sales will dwindle to minimal numbers, but it may still hold the majority of the market of MP3 players. Apple's MP3 player competitors didn't stand a chance, and the way things look they never will, not until something changes pretty dramatically in the market. That's the key issue. The iPad isn't 'unbeatable'. Something better will come along eventually. My question is, is that 'something better' going to be from Apple's tablet competitors? Or from another Apple project that renders tablets in general obsolete for the majority? I suppose a better title would be 'Apple's tablet competitors can't beat the iPad', which seems true to me until they change something to improve their chances.

calebgilbert 15y ago

and the Titanic was unsinkable...

artursapek 15y ago

Sometimes the way I see Apple promoting iPad makes me see it as a fad, but sometimes it feels like there are spots it can secure for good. For example, the new TV ad shows a clip of someone making a fake oil painting with their finger. That's a fad - people who use that will be people who want to see what it's like to paint once or twice, not serious painters. A fat finger on a glass pane will never be a substitute for a brush on canvas. The other promotional video on their homepage right now shows a yuppie mom using it as a visual grocery list, a mechanic doing oily-fingered conversions on it on some gruddy garage floor while handling heavy metal equipment, old men playing backgammon, and a bunch of young adults around a table "jamming and recording" music together. All of this is gimmickry. The ads also show people browsing photos and videos and reading iBooks. These are things I can see people using iPad for more than few times, and the key to having tablets not fizzle out as a fad is letting the money pour in from gimmickry while focusing on these functions that can make tablets last - like a photo album and a book. People will never use iPads for half the stuff they're being marketed for. People will certainly try it (and make Apple a ton of money in the process), but they'll end up preferring the former methods because a pane of glass can only emulate them and not outdo them.

glhaynes 15y ago
The vast majority don't make art and music with their computers, either, but we don't consider it "gimmickry" when some do. Most computer users use their computers for a narrow and mostly similar range of things, just like most iPad users do. Both computer ads and iPad ads mix a few of the niche apps with a few more commonly used apps because it makes a good ad. I think it's really clear that tablets are not a fad or in danger of fizzling out.
- artursapek 15y ago
  The difference I'm pointing out is between these niche apps - sure they exist on both platforms. Plenty of professionals produce music and art with computers, I don't think I need to prove that. But nobody will do this stuff on tablets. It's because personal computers will always be more sophisticated than tablets, both in terms of hardware and input. On an iPad you can play with a fake 6-inch guitar with your fingers in Garageband. That's limited gimmickry, and will only be fun/interesting the first few times. On a Macbook you can directly record an actual guitar and produce an album in Pro Tools. Nobody will ever produce an album on an iPad. The same goes for visual and physical art, nobody will ever use iPads for Photoshop or AutoCAD. These are just things that require complex UI that you can't use without a precise, physical form of input like a mouse and keyboard. Touch input is too bulky for things like that. There are good fields to go into with tablet apps - we're already seeing this with the watered-down photo editing Apple is selling. http://i.imgur.com/HUBeu.jpg http://i.imgur.com/HUBeu.jpg Some apps, like this and iBooks, can still be useful to typical consumers when they're this simple. But a lot of the other stuff is just gimmickry that sells on shallow novelty.

thought_alarm 15y ago

Microsoft is the only company that can compete with Apple in the consumer software space. The difference between the iPad and the iPod is that a consumer tablet platform really plays into Microsoft's strengths as a platform company in a way the iPod and iTunes absolutely did not. The traditional cell phone manufacturers will continue to use Android (or whatever) to sell mountains of cell phones like they have been doing for over a decade, but a tablet is a consumer software platform and after using Windows 8 it's painfully clear that only Microsoft and Apple really understand how to deliver such a platform. It will be a two horse race. The problem for Microsoft is that it will be Windows 8 v2 or v3 before is starts to match iOS feature for feature, and that's at least 2 years away. I may be on my 3rd iPad by then.

forcer 15y ago
Why do you think it will be 2 years away? I would not be suprised if by the end of this year, just few weeks after of W8 release there will be tons of apps that will match what 90% of consumers need. There are already lots of developers building W8 apps and they will all be tablet ready if MS plays it right - and they would be completely dumb if it would not be ready when they already did such a huge leap with their W8 UI revamp for laptops/desktops.

mcantelon 15y ago

The "post-PC" era will eliminate PCs like McDonalds eliminated kitchens.

kayoone 15y ago

Its funny. Apple sells 15M iPads per quarter, more than any PC manufacturer sells PCs. For comparision, they sell around 2M Macs in that timeframe. I know some people who own an iPad, i do so myself. But whenever i talk to them about it or look at myself i realize: almost noone really uses them. Maybe thats a thing with techies, so we dont really have use for such a casual device but i use my iphone alot daily, like 10x more than my iPad.

navs 15y ago
I think it's the convenience of always having the iPhone on you. The only time I reach for my iPad or Samsung Tab is when I want to read comics (thanks Comixology) or want to play a game.

ChuckMcM 15y ago

The title is link-baitey of course, but the general thesis is this: * control over essential components. * market leadership in applications. * continual innovation. The first one is the way in which Apple dominates and controls the supply chain. It's not monopolistic since they are paying real money for goods from third parties, but one has to wonder if there is restrictions on starting up new production lines. This becomes a huge barrier to entry to anyone else. I'm really curious to know where ASUS is getting their 1920x1200 glass for the new Transformer Prime. Like nuclear proliferation, there are a few key components that can prevent others effectively from building tablets. These are currently displays and radios. The application one has been discussed a lot on HN, but basically what it boils down to is Apple's policies with regards to applications acceptable for publication creates a more homogenous user experience. There is anecdotal evidence that this translates into a user perception of 'quality' to those applications. And finally they don't stop, like Intel's tick-tock sort of model they move incrementally forward each release. You can argue that the 'new iPad' is what the iPad 2 should have been but missed out, or you can argue its the same old same old with just a higher res screen and 4G, but the release after release means that if you're an Asus or a Samsung or a Dell, Etc and your development cycle is 2 years you have to guess where they will be in 2 years if you want to compete head to head. That is harder than you might think until you've tried it a few times. And of course the risk is that the 'new' thing might have come out of left field so its high risk. A strategy which has more understood risk is to create your own product in the space which has your own vision of what it will be, but folks like RIM who have tried that have been challenged to think outside the space that they were successful in. Apple's advantage here was that the iPad is in many ways just a big iPod touch. And they had a lot of information about the touch which could help them vet various ideas.

georgemcbay 15y ago

In the pure tablet space, iPad probably is unbeatable for the foreseeable future, but I think a lot of people are underestimating Microsoft's potential to change the game with Windows 8. As an early Asus Transformer TF101 adopter I'm totally sold on the idea of a tablet/laptop combo but as much as I like Android as a phone and basic tablet OS, I find myself wishing I could use the Transformer as a full-blown no-excuses laptop for development, etc (there are some sort-of-options there involving installing Ubuntu for ARM, but too much hassle to deal at this point and not well supported). Enter Windows 8 and the eventual laptops that are either ARM tablets with Metro-only or full blown x86 laptops when the tablet/screen is docked. That is the device I want. To some degree I don't care if it is running Windows 8 or Android + Linux, or OS X + iOS, but I suspect Microsoft will have their solution polished up before anyone else since nobody else is making strong moves into this space right now.

raesene2 15y ago

I'm not sure that the iPad is unbeatable (and in the long run what is, really), but in my opinion it is and will continue to be extremely successful for one main reason. (Most) people don't want a computer. They want something to give them access to shop online or to keep in touch with friends, to watch videos or to play games and at the moment the iPad provides the easiest, most hassle free way to achieve that. No A-V, easy updates, no worries about drivers or compatibility and it's relatively cheap. It's also very easy to use. As an anecdotal point I've recently introduced my mother who's in her sixties and father-in-law who's in his eighties to iPads and they've both been able to use them easily and without a lot of the questions and problems that technologists learn to dread when they're providing family IT support. The iPad isn't likely to replace laptops or desktops for IT professionals any time soon, but I think that for a lot of people it does what they want in an easier more intuitive way.

jack-r-abbit 15y ago

I guess this is how we are different. I am an avid Android user (phone & tablet). I like my devices. They work for me. I think both the iPhone and the iPad are nice pieces of hardware. They are slick. They function well. They do about the same things that my devices do. Some things are better... somethings are not (they do lack a couple things I really enjoy about my devices). Unfortunately for Apple, they are the very reason I probably will never own one of those devices. But if the iPad is what works for you... awesome. Use it. Love it. I don't think we need an "iPad killer" or an "iPhone killer". It would be a very sad world if there truly was only one option for a phone or tablet (even if it was an Android based device). There is plenty of space for multiple players. It is just plain arrogant douche-baggery to go around with this "the iPad is all you will ever need so stop looking" attitude. The best tool is the one that works best for you. Funny thing is, that is not be the same tool for everybody. Do I care that the iPad may have 99.9999% of the market share of tablets today? Nope. Just because all those people decided the iPad was the best tool for them it is irrelevant to which tool is best for me. Perhaps down the road more people will start choosing something else. Maybe not. I still like my choice. I'm not going to tell you what device to use... so don't start telling me which one I should (unless you're just trying to be an arrogant douche wagon for the heck of it). But hey... what do I know. I'm just some idiot that doesn't own an iPhad. rolls eyes

raldi 15y ago

"Meanwhile Google, which makes all its money through ads, will find itself reaching its customers through a device made by a hostile rival." So no change there, at least.