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Well, I give you kudos for at least making a verifiable prediction. I want to look up this comment in 5-10 years time and see how it turns out. In all honesty,
by hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
Well, I give you kudos for at least making a verifiable prediction. I want to look up this comment in 5-10 years time and see how it turns out.
In all honesty, I don't think it will turn out well. Primarily because you seem to be arguing that AI will reduce the value of content owners, e.g. "I fully expect that in 10-15 years time the value of the content owned by companies like Disney will approach zero. Mickey Mouse(ok, not the biggest asset they have now, but an example) will be replaced by Ricky the Raccoon or thousands of other characters generated by AI."
This is sooooo similar to what people expected in the late 90s with the rise of the consumer Internet, and the exact opposite happened. "Modern media companies will have to contend with everyone in the world being a potential competitor when the bar to getting a website up on the Internet and publishing your own content is so low" the story went. But the lesson learned is that when production and distribution become so cheap, this results in more concentration, not less, because it leads to "winner take all" dynamics where people are quick to switch to the best product, even if it's just a teeny bit better.
Sure, there may be Ricky the Raccoon or thousands of other AI generated characters. It's just that 99% of them will suck and nobody will care about them. There were a bajillion Geocities sites back in the day, too, and yet we all ended up spending most of our time on the same top few websites.