3 ms·

I doubt it. AI currently can do some replacement of features, or dream up scenes, but it cannot animate a character at will. So perhaps we'll have an even lar

by smokel 3y ago

I doubt it. AI currently can do some replacement of features, or dream up scenes, but it cannot animate a character at will. So perhaps we'll have an even larger green screen acting industry, and even more computer graphics, but there will still be humans involved to create anything compelling, at least until a next major breakthrough in AI, which is quite hard to predict. Also, I am already way past bored with the output from most contemporary AI. It seems to fill but a small hole in the large space of creativity.

Hermitian909 3y ago
AI doesn't have to do everything, or be the best at everything, it just has to do some things well enough, or augment humans enough that fewer people can do the job. There's a lot of labor destroying potential in animation. For example, a human could make a small number of key frames (this already happens) and AI could fill in the in-between frames (this is where a lot of labor goes) you could cut costs significantly.
jfoster 3y ago
AI can't animate a character at will? After everything we have seen AI become capable of, it seems incredible to claim that animating a character is something it simply won't be able to do in the future.
- smokel 3y ago
  Sure, it will also go to the theater in the future, and pay for a ticket to see humans act. Note that I used the word "currently". Given enough time, AI will be able to do things way beyond my current comprehension.
  - gremlinsinc 3y ago
    But AI CAN animate a character, they've animated a bear riding a skateboard, or dolphin surfing, etc. Albeit it's kinda shitty and imperfect but the proof of concept is already there, it's basically stable diffusion at the pre-prototype stages. Given 2 years it'll be able to churn full videos. I've already begun creating a Youtube shorts channel fully made of videos created by AI + CC licensed images and videos. I consult companies to do similar things, etc. There's a whole world out there that is going to change overnight. I'd say AGI is 4-5 years away tops. At that point, all bets are off the table. The reason I consult in AI? Contingency plan, if AI becomes the last major industry. I've got a family to support (that and I'm obsessed with the novelty and exciting things I can do with AI -- in the same way the scientist in Independence day is "excited" when the aliens come because all the stuff turned on in their captured spaceship - i.e. it's cool, but maybe I shouldn't be so giddy since it could spell our eventual doom).
    - smokel 3y ago
      No, this will most likely not happen in 2 years, because it's not a straightforward progression from the current state of the art. Generating realistic video requires using 3D models, instead of the 2D models that Stable Diffusion and similar use now. To get beyond a crappy level, at least two problems have to be tackled: 1. More example data has to be available. There is an abundance of 2D video and still images, on which the current systems are trained. There is, however, not enough 3D footage. 2. The systems that generate 2D images now cannot easily scale up to 3D images. Point clouds would require ~1000 times the amount of data, and 3D meshes are so different from images, that current techniques won't work. So, yes, it is possible that this will happen in two years time, but it seems highly unlikely. What I deem possible in two years time is generating animations such as cartoons, in which a perfect understanding of a 3D world is not required. And this would still require a lot of human input to be anywhere near interesting. Also, if you consult companies about this, and say that AGI is 4-5 years away, then I wonder if you are trolling, and I should possibly have refrained from writing this comment. If you are not trolling, please consult a book on AI, or any SF novel for that matter, from the 1960s.
notYetneway 3y ago
https://www.move.ai/ https://www.move.ai/ What our senses find acceptable is a finite set of parameters It’s only a matter of time Copyright exists as an artificial constraint on humans doing exactly the same thing; I could just work a local grocery and conjure my own worlds with free time When did freedom become “prop up the norms of yesteryear”? In the same way an atheist can chose not to be a vassal for Christianity future people do not have to store us in their memory To relate it to a technical concept; society will become an LLM training on old outputs and exhaust itself. Reality is not a forever fractal; longtermerism is just another attempt at secularizing religion https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-believes-it-is-important-for-us-to-die-2021-12 https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-believes-it-is-imp...

by smokel 3y ago

Hermitian909 3y ago

AI doesn't have to do everything, or be the best at everything, it just has to do some things well enough, or augment humans enough that fewer people can do the job. There's a lot of labor destroying potential in animation. For example, a human could make a small number of key frames (this already happens) and AI could fill in the in-between frames (this is where a lot of labor goes) you could cut costs significantly.

jfoster 3y ago

AI can't animate a character at will? After everything we have seen AI become capable of, it seems incredible to claim that animating a character is something it simply won't be able to do in the future.

smokel 3y ago
Sure, it will also go to the theater in the future, and pay for a ticket to see humans act. Note that I used the word "currently". Given enough time, AI will be able to do things way beyond my current comprehension.
- gremlinsinc 3y ago
  But AI CAN animate a character, they've animated a bear riding a skateboard, or dolphin surfing, etc. Albeit it's kinda shitty and imperfect but the proof of concept is already there, it's basically stable diffusion at the pre-prototype stages. Given 2 years it'll be able to churn full videos. I've already begun creating a Youtube shorts channel fully made of videos created by AI + CC licensed images and videos. I consult companies to do similar things, etc. There's a whole world out there that is going to change overnight. I'd say AGI is 4-5 years away tops. At that point, all bets are off the table. The reason I consult in AI? Contingency plan, if AI becomes the last major industry. I've got a family to support (that and I'm obsessed with the novelty and exciting things I can do with AI -- in the same way the scientist in Independence day is "excited" when the aliens come because all the stuff turned on in their captured spaceship - i.e. it's cool, but maybe I shouldn't be so giddy since it could spell our eventual doom).
  - smokel 3y ago
    No, this will most likely not happen in 2 years, because it's not a straightforward progression from the current state of the art. Generating realistic video requires using 3D models, instead of the 2D models that Stable Diffusion and similar use now. To get beyond a crappy level, at least two problems have to be tackled: 1. More example data has to be available. There is an abundance of 2D video and still images, on which the current systems are trained. There is, however, not enough 3D footage. 2. The systems that generate 2D images now cannot easily scale up to 3D images. Point clouds would require ~1000 times the amount of data, and 3D meshes are so different from images, that current techniques won't work. So, yes, it is possible that this will happen in two years time, but it seems highly unlikely. What I deem possible in two years time is generating animations such as cartoons, in which a perfect understanding of a 3D world is not required. And this would still require a lot of human input to be anywhere near interesting. Also, if you consult companies about this, and say that AGI is 4-5 years away, then I wonder if you are trolling, and I should possibly have refrained from writing this comment. If you are not trolling, please consult a book on AI, or any SF novel for that matter, from the 1960s.

notYetneway 3y ago

https://www.move.ai/ https://www.move.ai/ What our senses find acceptable is a finite set of parameters It’s only a matter of time Copyright exists as an artificial constraint on humans doing exactly the same thing; I could just work a local grocery and conjure my own worlds with free time When did freedom become “prop up the norms of yesteryear”? In the same way an atheist can chose not to be a vassal for Christianity future people do not have to store us in their memory To relate it to a technical concept; society will become an LLM training on old outputs and exhaust itself. Reality is not a forever fractal; longtermerism is just another attempt at secularizing religion https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-believes-it-is-important-for-us-to-die-2021-12 https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-believes-it-is-imp...