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I agree that population looks likely to shrink, especially across much of Europe and Asia; in reality even without that, population growth tends to look rather
by tomatocracy 3y ago
I agree that population looks likely to shrink, especially across much of Europe and Asia; in reality even without that, population growth tends to look rather more like a logistic function than an exponential anyway which makes the analogy a bit silly.
I don't think this necessarily means we will see economic degrowth though. A common mistake is to equate economic growth with the use of more natural resources or a greater population. Neither of these are needed for economic growth to occur - a lot of it is really driven by finding ways to use less natural or labour resources to achieve the same end, meaning more of that end can be achieved for the same cost. I'm far from convinced we're at the plateau of human ingenuity and our ability to drive efficientcy improvements in everything we do.
- slashdev 3y ago> a lot of it is really driven by finding ways to use less natural or labour resources to achieve the same end, meaning more of that end can be achieved for the same cost Yes, and I think that's what's been cushioning the blow in Japan. Eventually the growth in economic activity must end though. It has to be constrained by something in the physical world, be it resources, energy, or build-up of waste products. There's even a limit as to how much waste heat we can produce on Earth. But moving beyond Earth buys a lot more room for growth, and I expect that will eventually happen.