3 ms·

How will we make, cement, steel, plastic and fertilizer? If we do what you are suggesting, half the world population will starve to death.

by pipes 3y ago

xracy 3y ago
As opposed to right now, when the increased heat from climate change isn't killing anyone. Nope, we're all totally fine.
Paul-Craft 3y ago
Where's your alternative, then?
dTal 3y ago
I literally address making plastic / oil derivatives in the last line of my comment. Given enough energy, and raw feedstock matter, we can make anything we need. Nuclear power gets us all the energy we need. Matter can simply be recycled in closed loops. The nitrogen for fertilizer we currently get from fossil fuels currently ends up in our sewage, and from there to places it shouldn't be like the ocean, causing huge problems like algae blooms. Recycle that, and you've solved another problem! It's all about closing the loops.
- AstralStorm 3y ago
  Congratulations, we can build your solution in 25 years. Maybe. If there's still enough water to run any of it. And food. But there won't be. We really do not need much concrete or steel. What we need is bioplastics, biocomposites, wood, fused sand and a lot of farming practice changes. Some breakthrough in water desalination or cleanup. A lot of people will have to move. There's no way around it now.
netsharc 3y ago
Yeah, even Habeck, the Green Party guy who became Germany's Economic Minister, realised when Putin started the war, that the "simple, just go without Russian the gas" would've been catastrophic, their industry and economy depended so much on that gas, that mass unemployment would've destabilised the country, and maybe continent. Luckily he wasn't a dumb extremist, and despite his party affiliation he was working on solutions to keep the gas flowing.
bloopernova 3y ago
And if we do nothing there's a significant and rising chance that more than 99% of the world population will starve to death. I'm not saying that you're advocating doing nothing, nor am I supporting totalitarian/fascism. Just that at some point there will be decisions forced upon people; to choose who will live. Maybe that's part of the general apathy? Do people subconsciously think that they'll be saved and those "others" will be sacrificed?
- pipes 3y ago
  That's the problem I have, there's a chance if we do nothing there may be a bad outcome. However there is absolute certainty that poor people will starve to death if we "just stop oil". Infact if we attempted to do this now, civilisation as we know it would collapse, as we rely on fertilizer, cement, plastics and steel. We have no way replacing oil right now.
  - AstralStorm 3y ago
    Fertilizer is nitrate, sulfur and potassium, not oil. Cement and plastics have solid enough replacements out there, need to be deployed finally. Steel is harder but there are composites, biotech and carbon options. The only problem is trucks, diesel trains, tractors and some ships. Ships could just go the old slow way. Diesel trains have electric replacements, trucks and tractors are hard though mostly due to sheer numbers. Then we have airplanes, big ones have no replacement but we can live without them. The pharmaceuticals we can make from biomaterials, no serious mining. Industrial heat might be a problem for a hot moment but there are some possibilities. Water however is the key issue we will face and cannot really go around.
    - pipes 3y ago
      As far as I know we have no way to produce fertilizer at scale other than the haber-bosch process, and this requires fossil fuels. I'd be happy to be wrong about this!
      - 3y ago

How will we make, cement, steel, plastic and fertilizer? If we do what you are suggesting, half the world population will starve to death.

by pipes 3y ago

How will we make, cement, steel, plastic and fertilizer? If we do what you are suggesting, half the world population will starve to death.

xracy 3y ago

As opposed to right now, when the increased heat from climate change isn't killing anyone. Nope, we're all totally fine.

Paul-Craft 3y ago

Where's your alternative, then?

dTal 3y ago

I literally address making plastic / oil derivatives in the last line of my comment. Given enough energy, and raw feedstock matter, we can make anything we need. Nuclear power gets us all the energy we need. Matter can simply be recycled in closed loops. The nitrogen for fertilizer we currently get from fossil fuels currently ends up in our sewage, and from there to places it shouldn't be like the ocean, causing huge problems like algae blooms. Recycle that, and you've solved another problem! It's all about closing the loops.

AstralStorm 3y ago
Congratulations, we can build your solution in 25 years. Maybe. If there's still enough water to run any of it. And food. But there won't be. We really do not need much concrete or steel. What we need is bioplastics, biocomposites, wood, fused sand and a lot of farming practice changes. Some breakthrough in water desalination or cleanup. A lot of people will have to move. There's no way around it now.

netsharc 3y ago

Yeah, even Habeck, the Green Party guy who became Germany's Economic Minister, realised when Putin started the war, that the "simple, just go without Russian the gas" would've been catastrophic, their industry and economy depended so much on that gas, that mass unemployment would've destabilised the country, and maybe continent. Luckily he wasn't a dumb extremist, and despite his party affiliation he was working on solutions to keep the gas flowing.

bloopernova 3y ago

And if we do nothing there's a significant and rising chance that more than 99% of the world population will starve to death. I'm not saying that you're advocating doing nothing, nor am I supporting totalitarian/fascism. Just that at some point there will be decisions forced upon people; to choose who will live. Maybe that's part of the general apathy? Do people subconsciously think that they'll be saved and those "others" will be sacrificed?

pipes 3y ago
That's the problem I have, there's a chance if we do nothing there may be a bad outcome. However there is absolute certainty that poor people will starve to death if we "just stop oil". Infact if we attempted to do this now, civilisation as we know it would collapse, as we rely on fertilizer, cement, plastics and steel. We have no way replacing oil right now.
- AstralStorm 3y ago
  Fertilizer is nitrate, sulfur and potassium, not oil. Cement and plastics have solid enough replacements out there, need to be deployed finally. Steel is harder but there are composites, biotech and carbon options. The only problem is trucks, diesel trains, tractors and some ships. Ships could just go the old slow way. Diesel trains have electric replacements, trucks and tractors are hard though mostly due to sheer numbers. Then we have airplanes, big ones have no replacement but we can live without them. The pharmaceuticals we can make from biomaterials, no serious mining. Industrial heat might be a problem for a hot moment but there are some possibilities. Water however is the key issue we will face and cannot really go around.
  - pipes 3y ago
    As far as I know we have no way to produce fertilizer at scale other than the haber-bosch process, and this requires fossil fuels. I'd be happy to be wrong about this!
    - 3y ago