3 ms·

> Even if Mandel were to win, there was the possibility of multiple winners — a scenario that could significantly dilute the jackpot. In fact Mandel was not ab

by tromp 3y ago

> Even if Mandel were to win, there was the possibility of multiple winners — a scenario that could significantly dilute the jackpot. In fact Mandel was not able to calculate the odds of multiple winners. With publicity about an outsized jackpot, the general public is also expected to buy tickets in larger numbers, making it hard to estimate the expected winnings. For that reason, I would not consider this to be gaming, or cheating the lottery. There was no guaranteed profit, and a moderate chance of large losses. So he took a big gamble, and was lucky to be the only winner in the end. An interesting question is whether lotteries should publish the number of tickets sold when it implies expected winnings for every single ticket sold (as was the case in Mandel's lottery). On the one hand that should sell more tickets, but on the other hand it will deter some people from buying once the numbers stop being published...

PaulHoule 3y ago
But in his case he paid himself a commission and in the case the jackpot was split I’m sure he’d still get paid even if the investors got less. It makes me think of the other lottery system where you bet numbers that are less likely than average to be bet by others so your chance of sharing the jackpot is less. Certainly there are some numbers that people over bet, and in some lotteries you could avoid some of them in principle by betting on numbers that couldn’t possibly be part of a date. The upside for the scheme is limited though because a large majority of lottery tickets are sold as ‘quick picks’ where the machine picks a random number for you which is not only easy but a sound min max strategy.
evrydayhustling 3y ago
True, but he followed the cardinal rule of successful traders everywhere: gamble with other peoples' money. The life insurance front sounds like a lot more work than either the algorithm or the ticket buying logistics! I wonder how much of the payouts ended up with lawyers.
- huijzer 3y ago
  > True, but he followed the cardinal rule of successful traders everywhere: gamble with other peoples' money. Great advice if you want to be rich and unhappy. It is better to raise money and invest it wisely.
ClumsyPilot 3y ago
> cheating the lottery Isn't this a contradiction? Like only the lottery is allowed to cheat you?
bell-cot 3y ago
> An interesting question is whether lotteries should publish the number of tickets sold... Don't many State lotteries publish a "where your lottery dollar goes" breakdown - showing the percentages of ticket sales revenue going pay winners, going to support State programs, going to reseller commissions, and going to Lottery administrative overhead? With that breakdown, a history of the jackpot sizes, and some number-crunching, you should be able to get pretty good feel for ticket sales for each drawing.
- samstave 3y ago
  Just throw some GPT at it and call it a day! - UI can't wait until we hear of the next level MIT geeks in vegas armed with AI glasses doing all the card counting for them, across many tables, decks, days, tourneys etc... If there is one industry that should be afraid of AI nefariousness - it would be gambling.
  - CyberDildonics 3y ago
    All gambling except for poker is basic statistics. You are a few decades too late to trying to beat blackjack with computers. The advantages of card counting are negated anyway by multiple decks and shuffles before all the cards are dealt.

by tromp 3y ago

PaulHoule 3y ago

But in his case he paid himself a commission and in the case the jackpot was split I’m sure he’d still get paid even if the investors got less. It makes me think of the other lottery system where you bet numbers that are less likely than average to be bet by others so your chance of sharing the jackpot is less. Certainly there are some numbers that people over bet, and in some lotteries you could avoid some of them in principle by betting on numbers that couldn’t possibly be part of a date. The upside for the scheme is limited though because a large majority of lottery tickets are sold as ‘quick picks’ where the machine picks a random number for you which is not only easy but a sound min max strategy.

evrydayhustling 3y ago

True, but he followed the cardinal rule of successful traders everywhere: gamble with other peoples' money. The life insurance front sounds like a lot more work than either the algorithm or the ticket buying logistics! I wonder how much of the payouts ended up with lawyers.

huijzer 3y ago
> True, but he followed the cardinal rule of successful traders everywhere: gamble with other peoples' money. Great advice if you want to be rich and unhappy. It is better to raise money and invest it wisely.

ClumsyPilot 3y ago

> cheating the lottery Isn't this a contradiction? Like only the lottery is allowed to cheat you?

bell-cot 3y ago

> An interesting question is whether lotteries should publish the number of tickets sold... Don't many State lotteries publish a "where your lottery dollar goes" breakdown - showing the percentages of ticket sales revenue going pay winners, going to support State programs, going to reseller commissions, and going to Lottery administrative overhead? With that breakdown, a history of the jackpot sizes, and some number-crunching, you should be able to get pretty good feel for ticket sales for each drawing.

samstave 3y ago
Just throw some GPT at it and call it a day! - UI can't wait until we hear of the next level MIT geeks in vegas armed with AI glasses doing all the card counting for them, across many tables, decks, days, tourneys etc... If there is one industry that should be afraid of AI nefariousness - it would be gambling.
- CyberDildonics 3y ago
  All gambling except for poker is basic statistics. You are a few decades too late to trying to beat blackjack with computers. The advantages of card counting are negated anyway by multiple decks and shuffles before all the cards are dealt.